inst/dev/synthetic_recovery.md

In epiforecasts/EpiNow2: Estimate Real-Time Case Counts and Time-Varying Epidemiological Parameters

Synthetic Recovery visual results

This file combines the figures generated in rt.R into a single file, used to confirm that the fits to synthetic data with different EpiNow2 specifications work as expected.

In all figures, the black dots indicate the ground truth R(t) estimate, used to generate the synthetic data used for model fitting.

Estimate from the default Gaussian Process settings using the No-U-Turn (NUTS) sampler

Estimate from back-calculation

Estimate from a weekly random walk, with no Gaussian process

Estimate from a monthly random walk + a stationary Gaussian process

Comparison of different model specs

CRPS over time evaluated against known R(t) CRPS over time evaluated against infections

epiforecasts/EpiNow2 documentation built on March 1, 2025, 1:29 a.m.