example_binary: Binary forecast example data
In epiforecasts/scoringutils: Utilities for Scoring and Assessing Predictions

example_binary

R Documentation

Binary forecast example data

Description

A data set with binary predictions for COVID-19 cases and deaths constructed from data submitted to the European Forecast Hub.

Usage

example_binary

Format

An object of class forecast_binary (see as_forecast_binary()) with the following columns:

location: the country for which a prediction was made
location_name: name of the country for which a prediction was made
target_end_date: the date for which a prediction was made
target_type: the target to be predicted (cases or deaths)
observed: A factor with observed values
forecast_date: the date on which a prediction was made
model: name of the model that generated the forecasts
horizon: forecast horizon in weeks
predicted: predicted value

Details

Predictions in the data set were constructed based on the continuous example data by looking at the number of samples below the mean prediction. The outcome was constructed as whether or not the actually observed value was below or above that mean prediction. This should not be understood as sound statistical practice, but rather as a practical way to create an example data set.

The data was created using the script create-example-data.R in the inst/ folder (or the top level folder in a compiled package).