In ha0ye/rEDM: Applications of Empirical Dynamic Modeling from Time Series

Introduction

The goal of co-prediction is to quantify dynamic similarity between two time series. Given two time series, $x$ and $y$, we assume that the dynamics can be represented as: $$ x_{t+tp} = F\left(\mathbf{x}t\right) = F\left( x_t, x{t-\tau}, \dots, x_{t-(E-1)\tau} \right)$$ and $$ y_{t+tp} = G\left(\mathbf{y}t\right) = G\left( y_t, y{t-\tau}, \dots, y_{t-(E-1)\tau} \right)$$ .

Then co-prediction is a way to quantify how closely $F$ and $G$ resemble each other.

Method

We can accomplish this task using rEDM by constructing concatenated time series and applying simplex or s-map to make predictions with appropriately defined libs and preds.

First, we grab some demo time series from the block_3sp data.frame:

library(rEDM)
data(block_3sp)

x <- block_3sp$x_t[1:100]
y <- block_3sp$y_t[1:100]

Concatenate the time series and record which portions correspond to x and y:

concatenated_xy <- c(x, y)
lib_x <- c(1, length(x))
lib_y <- length(x) + c(1, length(y))

Use simplex to identify the optimal embedding dimension for x and use it to co-predict from x to y:

simplex_out_x <- simplex(concatenated_xy, lib = lib_x, pred = lib_x, silent = TRUE)
best_E_x <- simplex_out_x$E[which.max(simplex_out_x$rho)]

copred_x_to_y <- simplex(concatenated_xy, lib = lib_x, pred = lib_y, E = best_E_x)

and in the reverse direction:

simplex_out_y <- simplex(concatenated_xy, lib = lib_y, pred = lib_y, silent = TRUE)
best_E_y <- simplex_out_y$E[which.max(simplex_out_y$rho)]

copred_y_to_x <- simplex(concatenated_xy, lib = lib_y, pred = lib_x, E = best_E_y)

Results

We can interpret the strength of dynamic similarity in comparison to the univariate predictability of x and y.

First, merge the output into a single data.frame:

groups <- c("prediction of x (from x)", 
            "coprediction of x (from y)", 
            "prediction of y (from y)", 
            "coprediction of y (from x)")
to_plot <- data.frame(label = factor(groups, levels = groups), 
                      rbind(simplex_out_x[which.max(simplex_out_x$rho), ], 
                            copred_y_to_x, 
                            simplex_out_y[which.max(simplex_out_y$rho), ], 
                            copred_x_to_y)
)

Plot the output

library(ggplot2)
ggplot(to_plot, aes(x = label, y = rho)) + 
    geom_col() + theme_bw() + 
    theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 90, hjust = 1))

Here, we see that the predictions of $x$ are worse when we try to use the inferred dynamics from $y$ (i.e. $G$) to make forecasts. In contrast, the predictions of $y$ have roughly the same forecast skill. Since the time series come from a model simulation where $x$ and $y$ have different coefficients, we can infer their dynamical maps are actually different.

Thus, our results seem to show that the reconstructed map of $G$ (inferred from the 100-point time-series of $y$) is a subset of $F$ (inferred from the 100-point time series of $x$). One possibility is that the dynamics of $y$ are complex, such that more data is needed to recover the true dynamics (i.e. the true $G$ is more complex than our inferred $\hat{G}$ from the data) -- thus, with only 100 data points the inferred $\hat{F}$ is equally good at predicting $y$.

Alternatively, the dynamics of $y$ are the same as $x$, but the time series is observed with more noise, such that forecast skill is lower. (This also explains why we get roughly the same forecast skill when trying to predict $x$ using $\hat{G}$.) Using longer samples of the time series could potentially answer this question.

ha0ye/rEDM documentation built on March 30, 2021, 11:21 p.m.