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In joebrew/malariaprediction: The malaria elimination prediction market
The malaria elimination prediction market
Aligning incentives, reducing uncertainty, and increasing transparency through a marketplace of ideas approach
About
The problem
When it comes to malaria elimination, policy-makers are faced with a difficult decision: should they divert resources from other important health areas (HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, etc.) to malaria elimination, since the "return on investment" would be so great in the long term, or should they spread resources around so as to minimalize morbidity and mortality in the short term?
The solution
To answer this question, it is necessary to quantify the probability of and timeframe to achieving elimination, since the "expected value" of any investment requires some notion of likelihood and discount. for the purposes of quantifying likelihood of and time to country-specific malaria elimination, we propose a prediction market, a platform in which users "buy and sell ‘shares’ in a future event at a price that reflects their collective wisdom about the chance of the event happening" (Mann 2016). The concept has been applied to sports and politics, and have even started to make a foirée into science (Dreber et al. 2015, Almenberg, Kittlitz), and Pfeiffer (2009).
How it works
You have an account of "points" (think of them like dollars), which you can use to buy "shares". A "share" is basically just a bet that something will or will not occur. For example, if you own a "yes" share in "Malaria elimination in Zimbabwe by 2020", this means you are betting that elimination will take placein Zimbabwe by January 1st, 2020. Regardless of how much you paid to purchase that share, if you are correct you will receive 100 points on January 1st, 2020; and if you are incorrect, you will receive 0.
Remember, this is all "make-believe". The purpose is to demonstrate the market's feasibility, not create an actual, real-money market. Play as if you're playing for real-money, but don't worry: you have nothing to lose.
Contact
Questions? Want to get involved? Emali joe@economicsofmalaria.com
joebrew/malariaprediction documentation built on May 15, 2019, 1:40 p.m.
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The malaria elimination prediction market
Aligning incentives, reducing uncertainty, and increasing transparency through a marketplace of ideas approach
About
The problem
When it comes to malaria elimination, policy-makers are faced with a difficult decision: should they divert resources from other important health areas (HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, etc.) to malaria elimination, since the "return on investment" would be so great in the long term, or should they spread resources around so as to minimalize morbidity and mortality in the short term?
The solution
To answer this question, it is necessary to quantify the probability of and timeframe to achieving elimination, since the "expected value" of any investment requires some notion of likelihood and discount. for the purposes of quantifying likelihood of and time to country-specific malaria elimination, we propose a prediction market, a platform in which users "buy and sell ‘shares’ in a future event at a price that reflects their collective wisdom about the chance of the event happening" (Mann 2016). The concept has been applied to sports and politics, and have even started to make a foirée into science (Dreber et al. 2015, Almenberg, Kittlitz), and Pfeiffer (2009).
How it works
You have an account of "points" (think of them like dollars), which you can use to buy "shares". A "share" is basically just a bet that something will or will not occur. For example, if you own a "yes" share in "Malaria elimination in Zimbabwe by 2020", this means you are betting that elimination will take placein Zimbabwe by January 1st, 2020. Regardless of how much you paid to purchase that share, if you are correct you will receive 100 points on January 1st, 2020; and if you are incorrect, you will receive 0.
Remember, this is all "make-believe". The purpose is to demonstrate the market's feasibility, not create an actual, real-money market. Play as if you're playing for real-money, but don't worry: you have nothing to lose.
Contact
Questions? Want to get involved? Emali joe@economicsofmalaria.com
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