seas <- c("DJF","MAM","JJA","SON")
# set parameters
# length of prediction interval
n <- 10
# threshold for above percentile stats
qlev <- 0.90
# bootstrap repetitions
nb <- 1000
#years without eruptions for composite
before <- 8
after <- 10
t.ave <- 3
clim <- 30
strtyr <- 1900
# recovery
k <- 6
# skill
skill.init <- seq(0,0.99,0.01)
col1 <- c("darkgreen", "darkblue", "darkred")
col2 <- c("lightgreen", "lightblue", "salmon")
quants <- c(0.66,0.9,0.95)
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