forecast_Gaussian_hourly: Do hourly-resolution Gaussian error distribution forecast

In kdayday/solarbenchmarks: Intra-Hour and Intra-Day Probabilistic Solar Forecast Benchmarks

Description

Generates an hourly Gaussian error distribution forecast using a doubly truncated Gaussian distribution. The distribution's mean is the deterministic forecast from the control member (1st member) in the NWP ensemble. The distribution's standard deviation is calculated as the standard deviation of the deterministic forecast errors at the same hour-of-day over the sample set.

Usage

forecast_Gaussian_hourly(nwp, GHI, percentiles, sun_up, clearsky_GHI)

Arguments

nwp	A [day x issue time x lead time x member] matrix of NWP ensemble forecasts; First member is treated as the control member.
GHI	A [day x time] matrix of the telemetry
percentiles	A vector of the percentiles corresponding to the desired forecast quantiles
sun_up	A [day x time] matrix of logicals, indicating whether the sun is up
clearsky_GHI	a [day x time] matrix of clear-sky irradiance estimates

Details

Valid for hourly resolution forecasts. For intra-hourly forecasts, see forecast_Gaussian_intrahour. Distribution is truncated at 0 on the low end and clear-sky GHI on the upper end.

Value

a matrix of quantile forecasts at each valid time in the input data

See Also

Other forecast functions: forecast_CH_PeEn, forecast_Gaussian_intrahour, forecast_NWP, forecast_PeEn_hourly, forecast_PeEn_intrahour, forecast_climatology, forecast_mcm

kdayday/solarbenchmarks documentation built on May 22, 2020, 10:33 p.m.