forecast_PeEn_intrahour: Do intra-hourly persistence ensemble forecast

In kdayday/solarbenchmarks: Intra-Hour and Intra-Day Probabilistic Solar Forecast Benchmarks

Description

Generates an intra-hourly persistence ensemble forecast, using a few recent hours to generate a clear-sky index ensemble. The clear-sky index ensemble is multiplied by the upcoming clear-sky GHI to generate a GHI ensemble, transformed to a full probabilistic forecast using an empirical CDF.

Usage

forecast_PeEn_intrahour(GHI, percentiles, sun_up, clearsky_GHI,
  ts_per_hour, nhours)

Arguments

GHI	A vector of telemetry
percentiles	A vector of the percentiles corresponding to the desired forecast quantiles
sun_up	A vector of logicals, indicating whether the sun is up
clearsky_GHI	a vector of clear-sky irradiance estimates
ts_per_hour	Time-steps per hour, e.g., 12 for a 5-minute resolution forecast
nhours	Number of preceeding hours to collect training errors from, e.g., 1 or 2

Details

Valid for intra-hourly forecasts. For hourly resolution forecasts, see forecast_PeEn_hourly. While training data is being collected at the beginning of the day, forecast starts as deterministic clear-sky forecast and gathers CSI's for the ensemble starting after the 1st hour. This function is for hindcasting only, and uses the same clear-sky GHI estimates for both the historical and forecast values.

Value

a matrix of quantile forecasts at each valid time in the input data

See Also

Other forecast functions: forecast_CH_PeEn, forecast_Gaussian_hourly, forecast_Gaussian_intrahour, forecast_NWP, forecast_PeEn_hourly, forecast_climatology, forecast_mcm

kdayday/solarbenchmarks documentation built on May 22, 2020, 10:33 p.m.