Nothing
source("setup.R")
load("DVC.Rda")
DVC <- data.frame(number = c(rowSums(x06), rowSums(x09)),
days = c(1:365, 1:365),
year = factor(c(rep("2006", 365), rep("2009", 365))))
mod <- mctm(bbs(number, df = 3, differences = 1) ~
bbs(days, df = 3, differences = 1, cyclic = TRUE)
+ bbs(days, by = year, differences = 1, df = 3, cyclic = TRUE),
data = DVC, family = Binomial(link = "probit"), ngrid = 0:20 * 10,
control = boost_control(nu = 0.5, mstop = 250))
folds <- cv(model.weights(mod), strata = DVC$year)
(cv <- cvrisk(mod, folds = folds))
mod[mstop(cv)]
p <- predict(mod, newdata = DVC, annotate = TRUE, type = "response")
DVC$ID <- 1:nrow(DVC)
DVC$days <- c(seq(as.Date("2006-01-01"), length.out=365, by="1 day"),
seq(as.Date("2009-01-01"), length.out=365, by="1 day"))
p <- merge(p, DVC, by = "ID")
save(p, file = "ex_DVC.Rda")
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