predictedPayments-comma-AnnualAggLossDevModelOutputWithZeros-dash-method: A method to plot predicted vs actual payments for models from...

In BALD: Robust Loss Development Using MCMC

Description

A method to plot predicted vs actual payments for models from the BALD package.

Arguments

object	The object of type AnnualAggLossDevModelOutputWithZeros from which to plot predicted vs actual payments and return predicted payments.
type	A singe character value specifying whether to plot/return the predicted incremental or cumulative payments. Valid values are "incremental" or "cumulative." See details as to why these may not match up.
logScale	A logical value. If TRUE, then values are plotted on a log scale.
mergePredictedWithObserved	A logical value. If TRUE, then the returned values treat observed incremental payments at "face value"; otherwise predicted values are used in place of observed values.
plotObservedValues	A logical value. If FALSE, then only the predicted values are plotted.
plotPredictedOnlyWhereObserved	A logical value. If TRUE, then only the predicted incremental payments with valid corresponding observed (log) incremental payment are plotted. Ignored for type="cumulative".
quantiles	A vector of quantiles for the predicted payments to return. Usefull for constructing credible intervals.
plot	A logical value. If TRUE, then the plot is generated and the statistics are returned; otherwise only the statistics are returned.

Details

This method accounts for zero payments. By weighting estimated predicted payments by the probably that the payment is greater than zero.

Because the model is Bayesian, each estimated payment comes as a distribution. The median of this distribution is used as a point estimate when plotting and/or returning values. Note: One cannot calculate the estimated incremental payments from the estimated cumulative payments (and vice versa) since the median of sums need not be equal to the sum of medians.

Value

Mainly called for the side effect of plotting. Also returns a named array (with the same structure as the input triangle) containing the predicted log incremental payments. Returned invisibly.

See Also

accountForZeroPayments predictedPayments

BALD documentation built on May 2, 2019, 6:51 a.m.