tailFactor-comma-StandardAnnualAggLossDevModelOutputWithZeros-dash-method: A method to plot and/or return the predicted tail factors for...

In BALD: Robust Loss Development Using MCMC

Description

A method to plot and/or return the predicted tail factors for a specific attachment point.

Arguments

object	The object from which to plot the predicted tail factors and return tail factors for all attachment points.
attachment	An integer value specifying the attachment point for the tail. Must be at least 1. See Details for more info.
useObservedValues	A logical value. If TRUE, observed values are substituted for predicted values whenever possible in the calculation. If FALSE, only predicted values are used.
firstIsHalfReport	A logical value or NA. See Details for more information.
finalAttachment	An integer value must be at least 1 default value is attachment. A call to tailFactor returns (invisibly) a matrix of tail factors through this value.
plot	A logical value. If TRUE, the plot is generated and the statistics are returned; otherwise only the statistics are returned.
expYearRange	Either a range of years (for example c(1995, 2006)) or one of the keywords “all” or “fullyObs”.

Details

This method accounts for zero payments. By weighting estimated predicted payments by the probably that the payment is greater than zero.

The tail factor is the ratio of the estimated ultimate loss to cumulative loss at some point in development time. This is a method to allow for the retrieval and illustration of the tail factor by exposure year.

Because the model is Bayesian, each tail factor comes as a distribution. To ease graphical interpretation, only the median for each factor is plotted/returned. See for more details tailFactor.

For comparison purposes, the function returns three separated tail factors for three scenarios. Theses three tail factors are returned as a list with the following names and meanings:

“Actual”

These are the tail factors estimated when taking the break into consideration.

“AsIfPostBreak”

These are the tail factors estimated when assuming all years where in the post-break regime.

“AsIfPreBreak”

These are the tail factors estimated when assuming all years where in the pre-break regime.

Value

Mainly called for the side effect of plotting. Also returns tail factors for all attachment points through finalAttachment. See Details. Returned invisibly.

See Also

accountForZeroPayments tailFactor tailFactor("BreakAnnualAggLossDevModelOutput") tailFactor("BreakAnnualAggLossDevModelOutputWithZeros") tailFactor("StandardAnnualAggLossDevModelOutput")

BALD documentation built on May 2, 2019, 6:51 a.m.