ElectionMargin: Election Margin

In Lock5Data: Datasets for "Statistics: UnLocking the Power of Data"

Election Margin

Description

Approval rating and election margin for recent presidential elections

Format

A dataset with 13 observations on the following 5 variables.

Year	Certain election years from 1940-2020
Candidate	Incumbent US president
Approval	Presidential approval rating at time of election
Margin	Margin of victory/defeat (as a percentage)
Result	Outcome of the election for the incumbent: Lost or Won

Details

Data include US Presidential elections since 1940 in which an incumbent was running for president. The approval rating for the sitting president is compared to the margin of victory/defeat in the election.
** Updated for 4e with 2020 election, 2e added 2012 election **

Source

Silver, Nate, "Approval Ratings and Re-Election Odds", fivethirtyeight.com, posted January 28, 2011 and http:\realclearpolitics.org

Lock5Data documentation built on Jan. 8, 2026, 9:09 a.m.