Estep of the EM algorithm for fitting (non) homogeneous Markov switching auto-regressive models.

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Description

Forward-backward algorithm called in fit.MSAR.

Usage

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Estep.MSAR(data, theta, smth = FALSE, 
           verbose = FALSE, 
           covar.emis = covar.emis, covar.trans = covar.trans)

Arguments

data

array of univariate or multivariate series with dimension T*N.samples*d. T: number of time steps of each sample, N.samples: number of realisations of the same stationary process, d: dimension.

theta

model's parameter; object of class MSAR. See also init.theta.MSAR. .

smth

If smth=FALSE, only the forward step is computed for forecasting probabilities. If smth=TRUE, the smoothing probabilities are computed too.

verbose

if verbose=TRUE some results are printed at each iteration.

covar.emis

covariables for emission probabilities.

covar.trans

covariables for transition probabilities.

Value

A list including

loglik

log likelihood

probS

smoothing probabilities: P(S_t=s|y_0,\cdots,y_T)

probSS

one step smoothing probabilities: P(S_t=s,S_{t+1}|y_0,\cdots,y_T)

Author(s)

Valerie Monbet, valerie.monbet@univ-rennes1.fr

References

Ailliot P., Monbet V., (2012), Markov switching autoregressive models for wind time series. Environmental Modelling & Software, 30, pp 92-101.

See Also

fit.MSAR, Mstep.hh.MSAR

Examples

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#see fit.MSAR

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