Nothing
## ----include = FALSE----------------------------------------------------------
knitr::opts_chunk$set(
collapse = TRUE,
comment = "#>",
warning = F,
fig.align = "center"
)
devtools::load_all()
## ----setup, message=FALSE-----------------------------------------------------
library(tidyverse)
library(tidyquant)
library(anomalize)
library(timetk)
# NOTE: timetk now has anomaly detection built in, which
# will get the new functionality going forward.
# Use this script to prevent overwriting legacy anomalize:
anomalize <- anomalize::anomalize
plot_anomalies <- anomalize::plot_anomalies
## -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
tidyverse_cran_downloads
## ----fig.height=8, fig.width=6------------------------------------------------
tidyverse_cran_downloads %>%
ggplot(aes(date, count, color = package)) +
geom_point(alpha = 0.5) +
facet_wrap(~ package, ncol = 3, scales = "free_y") +
scale_color_viridis_d() +
theme_tq()
## -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
lubridate_tbl <- tidyverse_cran_downloads %>%
ungroup() %>%
filter(package == "lubridate")
## -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
forecast_mae <- function(data, col_train, col_test, prop = 0.8) {
predict_expr <- enquo(col_train)
actual_expr <- enquo(col_test)
idx_train <- 1:(floor(prop * nrow(data)))
train_tbl <- data %>% filter(row_number() %in% idx_train)
test_tbl <- data %>% filter(!row_number() %in% idx_train)
# Model using training data (training)
model_formula <- as.formula(paste0(quo_name(predict_expr), " ~ index.num + year + quarter + month.lbl + day + wday.lbl"))
model_glm <- train_tbl %>%
tk_augment_timeseries_signature() %>%
glm(model_formula, data = .)
# Make Prediction
suppressWarnings({
# Suppress rank-deficit warning
prediction <- predict(model_glm, newdata = test_tbl %>% tk_augment_timeseries_signature())
actual <- test_tbl %>% pull(!! actual_expr)
})
# Calculate MAE
mae <- mean(abs(prediction - actual))
return(mae)
}
## -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
lubridate_anomalized_tbl <- lubridate_tbl %>%
time_decompose(count) %>%
anomalize(remainder) %>%
# Function to clean & repair anomalous data
clean_anomalies()
lubridate_anomalized_tbl
## -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
lubridate_anomalized_tbl %>%
forecast_mae(col_train = observed, col_test = observed, prop = 0.8)
## -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
lubridate_anomalized_tbl %>%
forecast_mae(col_train = observed_cleaned, col_test = observed, prop = 0.8)
## -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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