R/us_fiscal_ex_forecasts.R

In bsvars: Bayesian Estimation of Structural Vector Autoregressive Models

#' @title A 3-variable system of exogenous variables' future values for the 
#' forecast horizon of two years for the US fiscal model for the period 
#' 2024 Q3 -- 2026 Q2
#'
#' @description Exogenous variables to be used in forecasting of the US fiscal 
#' policy shocks. Last data update was implemented on 2024-10-22.
#'
#' @usage data(us_fiscal_ex_forecasts)
#' 
#' @format A matrix and a \code{ts} object with time series of eight values on 
#' 3 variables:
#' \describe{
#'   \item{t}{a time trend}
#'   \item{t^2}{a quadratic trend}
#'   \item{1975Q2}{a dummy variable taking the value of 1 for quarter 2 1975 and zero elsewhere}
#' }
#' 
#' The series are as described by Mertens & Ravn (2014). The data was used by 
#' Lütkepohl, Shang, Uzeda, Woźniak (2024).
#' 
#' @references 
#' Lütkepohl, H., Shang, F., Uzeda, L., and Woźniak, T. (2024) Partial Identification of Heteroskedastic Structural VARs: Theory and Bayesian Inference. \emph{University of Melbourne Working Paper}, 1--57, \doi{10.48550/arXiv.2404.11057}.
#' 
#' Mertens, K., and Ravn, M.O. (2014) A Reconciliation of SVAR and Narrative Estimates of Tax Multipliers, \emph{Journal of Monetary Economics}, 68(S), S1–S19. DOI: \doi{10.1016/j.jmoneco.2013.04.004}.
#' 
#' @examples 
#' data(us_fiscal_ex_forecasts)   # upload the data
#' 
"us_fiscal_ex_forecasts"