forecast.fdm: Forecast functional demographic model.

In demography: Forecasting Mortality, Fertility, Migration and Population Data

Forecast functional demographic model.

Description

The coefficients from the fitted object are forecast using a univariate time series model. The forecast coefficients are then multiplied by the basis functions to obtain a forecast demographic rate curve.

Usage

## S3 method for class 'fdm'
forecast(
  object,
  h = 50,
  level = 80,
  jumpchoice = c("fit", "actual"),
  method = "arima",
  warnings = FALSE,
  ...
)

Arguments

object	Output from fdm.
h	Forecast horizon.
level	Confidence level for prediction intervals.
jumpchoice	If "actual", the forecasts are bias-adjusted by the difference between the fit and the last year of observed data. Otherwise, no adjustment is used.
method	Forecasting method to be used.
warnings	If TRUE, warnings arising from the forecast models for coefficients will be shown. Most of these can be ignored, so the default is warnings=FALSE.
...	Other arguments as for forecast.ftsm.

Value

Object of class fmforecast with the following components:

label	Name of region from which the data are taken.
age	Ages from lcaout object.
year	Years from lcaout object.
rate	List of matrices containing forecasts, lower bound and upper bound of prediction intervals. Point forecast matrix takes the same name as the series that has been forecast.
error	Matrix of one-step errors for historical data
fitted	Matrix of one-step forecasts for historical data
coeff	List of objects of type forecast containing the coefficients and their forecasts.
coeff.error	One-step errors for each of the coefficients.
var	List containing the various components of variance: model, error, mean, total and coeff.
model	Fitted model in obj.
type	Type of data: “mortality”, “fertility” or “migration”.

Author(s)

Rob J Hyndman

See Also

fdm, forecast.lca, forecast.ftsm.

Examples

france.fit <- fdm(fr.mort,order=2)
france.fcast <- forecast(france.fit,50)
plot(france.fcast)
models(france.fcast)

demography documentation built on Feb. 16, 2023, 7:02 p.m.