pop.sim: Population simulation

In demography: Forecasting Mortality, Fertility, Migration and Population Data

Population simulation

Description

Simulate future sample paths of a population using functional models for mortality, fertility and migration.

Usage

pop.sim(
  mort,
  fert = NULL,
  mig = NULL,
  firstyearpop,
  N = 100,
  mfratio = 1.05,
  bootstrap = FALSE
)

Arguments

mort	Forecasts of class fmforecast2 for mortality.
fert	Forecasts of class fmforecast for female fertility.
mig	Forecasts of class fmforecast2 for net migration.
firstyearpop	Population for first year of simulation.
N	Number of sample paths to simulate.
mfratio	Male-female ratio used in distributing births.
bootstrap	If TRUE, simulation uses resampled errors rather than normally distributed errors.

Value

A list of two arrays containing male and female future simulated population values. The arrays are of dimension (p,h,N) where p is the number of age groups, h is the forecast horizon and N is the number of simulated sample paths.

Author(s)

Rob J Hyndman

See Also

simulate.fmforecast, simulate.fmforecast2.

Examples

## Not run: 
require(addb)
# Construct data objects
mort.sm <- smooth.demogdata(set.upperage(extract.years(australia,1950:2002),100))
fert.sm <- smooth.demogdata(extract.years(aus.fertility,1950:2002))
aus.mig <- netmigration(set.upperage(australia,100),aus.fertility,mfratio=1.0545)
# Fit models
mort.fit <- coherentfdm(mort.sm)
fert.fit <- fdm(fert.sm)
mig.fit <- coherentfdm(aus.mig)
# Produce forecasts
mort.fcast <- forecast(mort.fit)
fert.fcast <- forecast(fert.fit)
mig.fcast <- forecast(mig.fit)
# Simulate
aus.sim <- pop.sim(mort.fcast,fert.fcast,mig.fcast,australia)
## End(Not run)

demography documentation built on Feb. 16, 2023, 7:02 p.m.