Epidemic data derived from a measles outbreak in the town of Hagelloch, Germany in 1861. 188 individuals were infected over the course of the epidemic. (One individual was removed from this dataset.)
Consists of two files: HagellochTimes and HagellochDyadCov. These two files contain the data necessary to analyze the Hagelloch measles data.
HagellochTimes contains 187 rows (one for each individual included) and 5 columns: NodeID (a numerical index ranging from 1 to 187); Putative Parent (the ID of the individual considered most likely to have been responsible for infecting this person, as determined by Osterle); Exposure time, Infectious time, and Removal time (the time index in days at which the individual entered the Exposed, Infectious, and Removed states, respectively). Note that Exposure times are not known for this data set. See references below for details regarding the determination of Infectious and Removal times.
HagellochDyadCov is a matrix of dyadic covariates corresponding to the individuals in the Hagelloch data set. Contains one row for each dyad (pair of individuals) in the population. The first two columns are the Node IDs for the two individuals in the dyad. The third column is a column of all 1 values, used as a baseline or intercept term. Columns 4, 5, and 6 are indicator variables for whether the two individuals in the dyad are in the same household, are both in classroom 1, or both in classroom 2, respectively. Column 7 is the household distance between the two individuals in the dyad, measured in units of 2.5m, Columns 8 and 9 are indicator variables based on whether both individuals in the dyad are male or female, respectively. Column 10 is the age difference (in years) between the two individuals in the dyad.
Thanks to Peter Neal for providing this data set. This data was originally collected by Pfeilsticker:
Pfeilsticker, A. (1863). Beitrage zur Pathologie der Masern mit besonderer Berucksichtigung der statistischen Verhaltnisse, M.D. thesis, Eberhard-Karls Universitat, Tubingen.
and later modified by Osterle:
Oesterle, H. (1992). Statistiche Reanalyse einer Masernepidemie 1861 in Hagelloch, M.D. Thesis, Eberhard-Karls Universitat, Tubingen.
Neal, P. and Roberts, G. (2004). Statistical inference and model selection for the 1861 Hagelloch measles epidemic. Biostatistics 5 (2), 249.
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