Nothing
Predict.mix <- function(test,spl,start)
{
iter <- length(spl$r )
phitimesr <- spl$phi[start:iter,]
phitimesr[,1] <- phitimesr[,1] * spl$r1[start:iter]
phitimesr[,-1] <- phitimesr[,-1] * spl$r[start:iter]
rplusN2 <- rplusN1 <- matrix(0,iter-start+1,ncol(spl$phi))
rplusN1[,1] <- spl$r1[start:iter] + spl$N1[start:iter]
rplusN1[,-1] <- spl$r[start:iter] + spl$N1[start:iter]
rplusN2[,1] <- spl$r1[start:iter] + spl$N2[start:iter]
rplusN2[,-1] <- spl$r[start:iter] + spl$N2[start:iter]
theta1 <- (phitimesr + spl$I1[start:iter,]) / rplusN1
theta2 <- (phitimesr + spl$I2[start:iter,]) / rplusN2
PC = ( spl$N1[start:iter] + 1 ) /
( spl$N1[start:iter] + spl$N2[start:iter] + 2 )
pred = rep( 0,nrow(test) )
for( i in 1:nrow(test) )
{
den <- num <- rep( 0, iter - start + 1 )
for( t in 1:length( num ) )
{
num[t] = LOG.add.exp(
sum( dbinom( c(1,test[i,-1]),1,theta1[t,],log=TRUE) ) +
log( PC[t] ) ,
sum( dbinom( c(1,test[i,-1]),1,theta2[t,],log=TRUE) ) +
log( 1-PC[t] )
)
den[t] = LOG.add.exp(
sum( dbinom( c(0,test[i,-1]),1,theta1[t,],log=TRUE) ) +
log( PC[t] ) ,
sum( dbinom( c(0,test[i,-1]),1,theta2[t,],log=TRUE) ) +
log( 1-PC[t] )
)
}
pred[i] = 1/(1 + exp( LOG.sum.exp(den) - LOG.sum.exp(num)))
}
pred
}
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