Compile the RBA's public forecasts of key economic variables over time
rba_forecasts( refresh = TRUE, all_or_latest = c("all", "latest"), remove_old = TRUE ) read_forecasts(...)
logical; default is
character; default is
logical; default is
Arguments passed to
Forecasts are not available for all series on all forecast dates. CPI inflation and GDP growth are included in all forecasts. The unemployment rate is included in most forecasts. Other series are included inconsistently, based on their availability in the underlying source data.
All forecasts issued on or before November 2014 come from Tulip and Wallace (2012), RBA RDP2012-07. Data available: https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/historical-forecasts.html.
Data from 2015 to present are scraped from the RBA's quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2020/aug/). Note from from Feb 2015 to August 2018 (inclusive) only include a few series; those from November 2018 onwards include more series.
read_forecasts() is a wrapper around
tbl_df containing 8 columns:
forecast_date The (approximate) date on which the forecast was published. Note that this is the first day of the publication month, so the
forecast_date for forecasts in the February 2020 Statement on Monetary Policy is
date The date to which the forecast pertains. Note that this is the first day of the final month of the relevant quarter. For example, a forecast of GDP in the June quarter 2021 will be
year_qtr The year and quarter to which the forecast pertains, such as 2019.1.
series Short, snake_case description of the data series being forecast, such as
unemp_rate. These are consistent over time.
value The forecast value, in per cent. For example, if GDP growth is forecast to be 3 per cent, the value will be
3. Note that where a forecast is given as a range (eg. 3.5-4.5%) the
value will be the midpoint of the range (eg. 4%).
series_desc Full description of the series being forecast, as per the RBA website, such as "Real household disposable income". Note that series descriptions are not necessarily consistent over time; the values here are those published by the RBA. The
series column is consistent over time.
source For recent forecasts, this is 'SMP', meaning the RBA's Statement on Monetary Policy. Forecasts prior to 2014 are sourced from various places; see
notes Notes accompanying the forecasts, as per the RBA's website. Note these are identical for item in a given
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