NEWS.md
In HIDDA/forecasting: Forecasting Based on Surveillance Data

HIDDA.forecasting 1.1.2 (2023-11-29)

Vignettes have been rebuilt using up-to-date versions of all involved packages in R 4.3.2 (on a new machine). This only gave minor numerical differences in the long-term forecasts of vignette("CHILI_prophet").
Accommodate restricted checks without suggested packages.

Vignettes have been rebuilt using up-to-date versions of all involved packages in R 4.0.4, resulting in the following changes:
vignette("BNV"): age-specific amplitude-shift parameter transformations were wrong in summary(mg_Cpower); bug fixed in surveillance 1.18.0.
surveillance::pit() values for degenerate forecasts with zero probability for observed counts may differ due to a change in surveillance 1.17.1 (they still produce warnings).
vignette("CHILI_hhh4"): no rounding of n from 213 to 210 in printed calibrationTest() (a bug fixed in R 3.6.0).
vignette("CHILI_prophet"): minor numerical differences in model fit and predictions due to changes in prophet.

Use standard PIT for continuous forecasts (arima, prophet, naive). Differences to the previously used non-randomized PIT histograms for count data are negligible.
Add scores for discretized log-normal forecasts, via new function scores_lnorm_discrete(). These scores are almost identical to the continuous scores, essentially due to the large counts.
Vignettes have been rebuilt using up-to-date versions of all involved packages (forecast 8.5, glarma 1.6.0, hhh4contacts 0.13.0, prophet 0.4, scoringRules 0.9.5, surveillance 1.17.0) in R 3.5.3.