updates/day18.R

In eeholmes/CoV19: Eli's package for figures and data on CoV-19 epidemic

Update #18 I spent the last 2 weeks finishing up a paper for work and haven't been able to look at the CoV-19 stuff for awhile. But paper was submitted yesterday, so I got a chance to look at the CoV-19 data again.

The cases in Lombardy are going slowly down, but quite a bit slower than they went up. By end of May, it looks like the epidemic will be largely done. In the end, it looks like ca 2 in 1000 will have died of CoV-19 in Lombardy. That is sobering, esp since the epidemic was stopped with a lockdown rather than herd immunity. But we don't really know what fraction are immune in Lombardy. I read that they were doing mass antibody testing last week, but haven't seen the results posted (I haven't looked very hard though). Note, antibodies != immune but immune == antibodies.

Across Europe, it is a mixed bag but with most countries in control of their epidemics. All of these should have low number of cases by June 1. A few countries (Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Czechia, Norway, Denmark) were able to control new cases very well and they'll be at low new cases by mid-May. At that point, contract tracing and isolating new infections works. But a few countries have not worked to control the epidemic as aggressively and they'll have high numbers of new cases well into summer. Some, like Hungary, don't have new cases dropping at all yet. It'll be interesting to see how Europe deals with their borders over the summer.

In other parts of the world, numbers are exploding in Russia and Mexico. Sigh.

Ok, closer to home! In WA, the data continue to be bad. WA DOH posted a nice excel sheet with the cleaned data on April 12th and then didn't update it. So I am back with the John Hopkins data for WA. But generally things look good in our states. New cases continue to decline. By end of May, new cases should be quite low if trends continue. This is a prerequisite for contact tracing and testing to work to control further spread. If Washingtonians continue to socially isolate, we will likely see things opening back up by early summer (with lots of restrictions to keep transmission low).
                                                         In New York/New Jersey, the epidemic is declining well but it has taken a sad toll. As of today ca 1 in 1000 have died in NY/NJ of CoV-19 and they are only about halfway through the death toll. This week they are doing antibody testing in NY (per Cuomo's new conference a few days ago). A real reckoning will happen after they get a handle of what fraction of the population might be immune. If it is like 10%, that means the death toll would be like 7x higher if the infection isn't stamped out (if that is even possible for NY/NJ). But there is a race to develop new treatments so maybe success will be found there in the next few months.
Across the US, there are some concerning patterns. First, it looks like the disease will be with us well into the summer. In a few regions, WA+OR+NorCal for example, it looks like the epidemic is in control and we'll be a low number of new cases by beginning of June. But in other parts of the US, it appears to be getting out of control. Then in still other areas, it looks to be just sputtering along, probably densities are low enough that the R0 just isn't high enough to cause situations like NY/NJ are experiencing.

The midwest, both east and west regions, are concerning. Ohio shows a recent big uptick in new cases and Illinois and Indiana just haven't gotten their cases under control (driving them down). The west region is lower density, that's MN, Dakotas, Iowa, Nebraska, but there is no sign yet that cases are under-control. New cases should be ticking down and they are not. Then there is southern California. Hopefully things start turning around, but right now the numbers don't look so good. The new cases had been around 1000 per day (not great in itself) and recently they jumped above 1500. Things look good in northern California though with new cases now below 300 per day.

Summary of the US by Region
Mid-Atlantic (NY/NJ/PA): 10000 new cases/day. <100 by mid-June.
East N Central Midwest (OH, IL, IN, MI, WI): 4000 new cases/day. NOT <100 by Sept 1.
New England: 3000 new cases a day. <100 by July 1.
South Atlantic states, South: 2000 new cases/day. <100 by July 1.
South Atlantic states, North: 1500 new cases/day. <100 by Aug 1.
So Cal: 1500 new cases per day. Not slowing.
West N Central Midwest: 1000 new cases/day. Not slowing.
Mountain Southwest: 900 new cases/day. <100 by Aug 1.
The South-west (TX, OK, AR): 800 new cases/day. <100 by mid June.
The South-east (AL, MS, TN, KY): 750 new cases/day. NOT <100 by Sept 1.
West Coast w/o SoCal: 500 new cases/day. <100 by mid May.
Mountain North: Low. <50 new cases/day.

The one bright spot is that the case fatality rate is lower in the US than in many countries in Europe.