nordpred uses the power5 and poisson Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models to
calculate prediction of cancer incidence and mortality
This class of objects is returned by the nordpred.estimate class of functions
to represent a fit of power5 and poisson Age-Period-Cohort models for
prediction of cancer incidence.
Objects of this class have methods
data.frame with number of cases
data.frame with observed and forecasted person years
Number of periods used in estimate
P-value for goodness of fit
Youngest age group which have been included in the regression model. Predictions for age groups below this limit it based on average rates from the last 10 years.
Indicator recommendation build on pvaluerecent for
projecting of average trend or use the slope for the last 10 years?
recent = FALSE, recommendation is to use average trend for the whole observation
period, and if
recent = TRUE recommendation is to use the slope from the last 10 years
P-value for use of recent trend based on a significance test for departure from linear trend
Link function used in the model. Default is special version used in the Nordpred project ('power5'), where the link is g(x)=x^0.2, while the alternative is the poisson function ('poisson'), where the link is g(x)=log(x)
The object will also contain the following (see
Powerlink is made via a special modification in S-PLUS. This works fine for the point estimates, but the variance estimates found via the glm-objects are wrong. For variance estimates, we would rather recommend using R.
Harald Fekjaer and Bjorn Moller (Cancer Registry of Norway)
A website for nordpred is available at: http://www.kreftregisteret.no/software/nordpred/
Background for the methods can be found in: Moller B., Fekjaer H., Hakulinen T., Sigvaldason H, Storm H. H., Talback M. and Haldorsen T 'Prediction of cancer incidence in the Nordic countries: Empirical comparison of different approaches' Statistics in Medicine 2003; 22:2751-2766
An application of the function, using all the default settings, can be found in: Moller B, Fekjaer H, Hakulinen T, Tryggvadottir L, Storm HH, Talback M, Haldorsen T. Prediction of cancer incidence in the Nordic countries up to the year 2020. Eur J Cancer Prev Suppl 2002; 11: S1-S96
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