inst/markdown/03.biomass_index_carstm.md
In jae0/snowcrab: Snow crab assessment suite using aegis* and associated projects and data streams.
title: "Snow crab Areal unit modelling"
author:
- name: Snow crab group
# orcid: 0000-0003-3632-5723
# email: jae.choi@dfo-mpo.gc.ca
# email: choi.jae.seok@gmail.com
# corresponding: true
affiliation:
- name: Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada
city: Dartmouth
state: NS
url: www.bio.gc.ca
date: 2024-08-17
keywords:
- snow crab fishery assessment
- areal-unit modelling of numerical abundance, habitat, mean weight
- convolution of posterior-simulations of biomass
abstract: |
Snow crab modelling of numerical abundance, mean weight and habitat using conditional autoregressive models. Biomass is estimated from these components via multiplication of the posterior draws.
toc: true
number-sections: true
highlight-style: pygments
bibliography: media/references.bib
csl: media/canadian-journal-of-fisheries-and-aquatic-sciences.csl # see https://www.zotero.org/styles for more
license: "CC BY"
copyright:
holder: Jae S. Choi
year: 2024
citation:
container-title: https://github.com/jae0/bio.snowcrab/
doi: NA
funding: "The snow crab scientific survey was funded by the snow crab fishers of Maritimes Region of Atlantic Canada."
editor:
render-on-save: false
format:
html:
code-fold: true
html-math-method: katex
embed-resources: true
pdf:
pdf-engine: lualatex
docx: default
Purpose
The snow crab biomass index is derived from the convolution of three separate Bayesian spatiotemporal model solutions via posterior simulation. This is completed through the carstm front-end to INLA, used to perform "non-separable" spatial Conditional autocorrelation (CAR) and temporal (AR1) models.
- Poisson model of positive valued numbers offset by swept area in space and time
- Mean body size (mass; kg) in space and time
- Presence-absence of organisms in space and time, where presence or absence is defined on a quantile threshold of numerical density presence_absence
The convolution of all three after posterior simulation is also known as a Hurdle or Delta model.
Part 1 -- construct basic parameter list defining the main characteristics of the study
#| label: setup
#| eval: true
#| output: false
require(aegis)
require(bio.snowcrab) # loadfunctions("bio.snowcrab")
year.start = 1999
year.assessment = 2023
yrs = year.start:year.assessment
spec_bio = bio.taxonomy::taxonomy.recode( from="spec", to="parsimonious", tolookup=2526 )
snowcrab_filter_class = "fb" # fishable biomass (including soft-shelled ) "m.mat" "f.mat" "imm"
carstm_model_label= paste( "default", snowcrab_filter_class, sep="_" )
# params for number
pN = snowcrab_parameters(
project_class="carstm",
yrs=yrs,
areal_units_type="tesselation",
carstm_model_label= carstm_model_label,
selection = list(
type = "number",
biologicals=list( spec_bio=spec_bio ),
biologicals_using_snowcrab_filter_class=snowcrab_filter_class
)
)
# params for mean size .. mostly the same as pN
pW = snowcrab_parameters(
project_class="carstm",
yrs=yrs,
areal_units_type="tesselation",
carstm_model_label= carstm_model_label,
selection = list(
type = "meansize",
biologicals=list( spec_bio=spec_bio ),
biologicals_using_snowcrab_filter_class=snowcrab_filter_class
)
)
# params for probability of observation
pH = snowcrab_parameters(
project_class="carstm",
yrs=yrs,
areal_units_type="tesselation",
carstm_model_label= carstm_model_label,
selection = list(
type = "presence_absence",
biologicals=list( spec_bio=spec_bio ),
biologicals_using_snowcrab_filter_class=snowcrab_filter_class
)
)
# areal units upon which carstm will operate ... this is made in 01.snowcrab.r
sppoly=areal_units( p=pN )
pN$space_name = sppoly$AUID
pN$space_id = 1:nrow(sppoly) # must match M$space
pN$time_name = as.character(pN$yrs)
pN$time_id = 1:pN$ny
pN$cyclic_name = as.character(pN$cyclic_levels)
pN$cyclic_id = 1:pN$nw
pW$space_name = sppoly$AUID
pW$space_id = 1:nrow(sppoly) # must match M$space
pW$time_name = as.character(pW$yrs)
pW$time_id = 1:pW$ny
pW$cyclic_name = as.character(pW$cyclic_levels)
pW$cyclic_id = 1:pW$nw
pH$space_name = sppoly$AUID
pH$space_id = 1:nrow(sppoly) # must match M$space
pH$time_name = as.character(pH$yrs)
pH$time_id = 1:pH$ny
pH$cyclic_name = as.character(pH$cyclic_levels)
pH$cyclic_id = 1:pH$nw
Now that parameter are loaded, we can create (run manually) or reload the input data (later).
#| label: input data
#| eval: false
#| output: false
# create model data inputs and the output fields
M = snowcrab.db( p=pN, DS="carstm_inputs", sppoly=sppoly, redo=TRUE ) # will redo if not found
Part 2 -- spatiotemporal statistical model
With all required parameters defined, the modelling is straightforward (run manually). Here we reused previous solution modes ("theta") to speed up solutions.
Each variable is modelled with the same covariates.
#| label: carstm-run
#| eval: false
#| output: false
# total numbers
sppoly = areal_units( p=pN )
M = snowcrab.db( p=pN, DS="carstm_inputs", sppoly=sppoly ) # will redo if not found
io = which(M$tag=="observations")
ip = which(M$tag=="predictions")
iq = unique( c( which( M$totno > 0), ip ) )
iw = unique( c( which( M$totno > 5), ip ) ) # need a good sample to estimate mean size
# number
carstm_model( p=pN, data=M[ iq, ], sppoly=sppoly,
theta=c( 2.7291,1.8146,2.9382,0.0132,3.8666,-0.0211,4.2673,5.5037,6.1421,0.2391,4.2522,0.7666,-0.0100,0.8763 ),
nposteriors=5000,
toget = c("summary", "random_spatial", "predictions"),
posterior_simulations_to_retain = c("predictions"),
family = "poisson",
verbose=TRUE,
# redo_fit=FALSE,
# debug = "summary",
# debug = "predictions",
num.threads="4:3"
)
# posterior predictive check
carstm_posterior_predictive_check(p=pN, M=M[ iq, ] )
# EXAMINE POSTERIORS AND PRIORS
res = carstm_model( p=pN, DS="carstm_summary" ) # parameters in p and summary
res_vars = c( names( res$hypers), names(res$fixed) )
for (i in 1:length(res_vars) ) {
o = carstm_prior_posterior_compare( res, vn=res_vars[i] )
dev.new(); print(o)
}
# mean size
carstm_model( p=pW, data=M[ iw, ], sppoly = sppoly,
# theta=c( 6.0911, 8.6746, 0.9708, 11.4664, -0.0007, 10.6392, 6.7992, 11.4451, 12.4703, 11.5656, 6.6841, 3.4669, 5.8501, 3.1671, 1.7484 ),
nposteriors=5000,
toget = c("summary", "random_spatial", "predictions"),
posterior_simulations_to_retain = c("predictions"),
family = "gaussian",
verbose=TRUE,
# redo_fit=FALSE,
# debug = "summary",
# control.inla = list( optimiser="gsl" ),
control.inla = list( strategy="laplace", optimiser="gsl", restart=1 ), # gsl = gsl::bfgs2
# control.mode = list( restart=TRUE ),
num.threads="4:3"
)
# posterior predictive check
carstm_posterior_predictive_check(p=pW, M=M[ iw, ] )
# EXAMINE POSTERIORS AND PRIORS
res = carstm_model( p=pW, DS="carstm_summary" ) # parameters in p and summary
res_vars = c( names( res$hypers), names(res$fixed) )
for (i in 1:length(res_vars) ) {
o = carstm_prior_posterior_compare( res, vn=res_vars[i] )
dev.new(); print(o)
}
# model pa using all data
carstm_model( p=pH, data=M, sppoly=sppoly,
theta = c( 0.8917, 2.0052, 4.5021, -0.0000, 1.5400, -2.4689, 1.1762, 2.6536, 2.9546, -2.1406, 3.5352, -0.7465, 3.2443, 2.4420
),
nposteriors=5000,
toget = c("summary", "random_spatial", "predictions"),
posterior_simulations_to_retain = c("predictions"),
family = "binomial", # "binomial", # "nbinomial", "betabinomial", "zeroinflatedbinomial0" , "zeroinflatednbinomial0"
verbose=TRUE,
# redo_fit=FALSE,
# debug = "summary",
# control.family=list(control.link=list(model="logit")), # default for binomial .. no need to specify
# control.inla = list( strategy="laplace", int.strategy="eb" ),
num.threads="4:3"
)
# posterior predictive check
carstm_posterior_predictive_check(p=pH, M=M[ , ] )
# EXAMINE POSTERIORS AND PRIORS
res = carstm_model( p=pH, DS="carstm_summary" ) # parameters in p and summary
res_vars = c( names( res$hypers), names(res$fixed) )
for (i in 1:length(res_vars) ) {
o = carstm_prior_posterior_compare( res, vn=res_vars[i] )
dev.new(); print(o)
}
# end spatiotemporal model
# some maps and plots
# for mapping below, some bathymetry and polygons
additional_features = snowcrab_mapping_features(pN)
for (vns in c( "number", "meansize", "habitat") ) {
#vns ="number"
#vns ="meansize"
#vns ="habitat"
if ( vns=="number" ) {
p=pN
ylab = "Number"
fn_root_prefix = "Predicted_numerical_abundance"
fn_root = "number"
# title= paste( snowcrab_filter_class, "Number; no./m^2" )
}
if ( vns=="meansize") {
p=pW
ylab = "Mean weight"
fn_root_prefix = "Predicted_meansize"
fn_root = "weight"
# title= paste( snowcrab_filter_class, "Mean weight; kg" )
}
if ( vns=="habitat" ) {
p=pH
ylab = "Probability"
fn_root_prefix = "Predicted_presence_absence"
fn_root = "habitat"
# title= paste( snowcrab_filter_class, "Probability")
}
outputdir = file.path( p$modeldir, p$carstm_model_label, "figures" )
if ( !file.exists(outputdir)) dir.create( outputdir, recursive=TRUE, showWarnings=FALSE )
# # to compute habitat prob
# sims = carstm_posterior_simulations( pH=pH, pa_threshold=0.05, qmax=0.95 )
# SM = aggregate_simulations(
# sims=sims,
# sppoly=sppoly,
# fn=carstm_filenames( pN, returnvalue="filename", fn="aggregated_timeseries" ),
# yrs=pN$yrs,
# method="mean",
# redo=TRUE
# )
# outputdir = file.path( carstm_filenames( pN, returnvalue="output_directory"), "aggregated_habitat_timeseries" )
# ylabel = "Habitat probability"
# fn_ts = "habitat_M0.png"
# vn = paste("habitat", "predicted", sep=".")
# outputdir2 = file.path( carstm_filenames( pN, returnvalue="output_directory"), "predicted_habitat" )
# to load currently saved results
res = carstm_model( p=p, DS="carstm_summary" ) # parameters in p and direct summary
res$direct
res = NULL; gc()
# plots with 95% PI
carstm_plot_marginaleffects( p, outputdir, fn_root )
# maps of some of the results
outputdirmap = file.path(p$modeldir, p$carstm_model_label, "maps" )
carstm_plot_map( p=p, outputdir=outputdirmap, fn_root_prefix=fn_root_prefix , additional_features=additional_features,
toplot="random_spatial", probs=c(0.025, 0.975) )
carstm_plot_map( p=p, outputdir=outputdirmap, fn_root_prefix=fn_root_prefix , additional_features=additional_features,
toplot="predictions", probs=c(0.1, 0.9))
}
Part 3: assimilation of models
Convolution is straightforward as it is operating upon joint posterior simulations. Add more maps/figures as required.
# wgts_max = 1.1 # kg, hard upper limit
# N_max = NULL
# # quantile( M$totno[ipositive]/M$data_offset[ipositive], probs=0.95, na.rm=TRUE )
# posterior sims
require(ggplot2)
library(ggbreak)
regions = c("cfanorth", "cfasouth", "cfa4x" )
region_label = c("N-ENS", "S-ENS", "4X")
color_map = c("#E69F00", "#56B4E9", "#CC79A7" )
additional_features = snowcrab_mapping_features(pN)
sppoly = areal_units( p=pN ) # to reload
for ( vns in c("abundance", "habitat") ) {
if (vns=="abundance") {
sims = carstm_posterior_simulations( pN=pN, pW=pW, pH=pH, pa_threshold=0.05, qmax=0.95 )
sims = sims / 10^6 # units: kg ; div (10^6) -> kt ;;
# sims[ which(!is.finite(sppoly$npts)),, ] = 0
SM = aggregate_simulations(
sims=sims,
sppoly=sppoly,
fn=carstm_filenames( pN, returnvalue="filename", fn="aggregated_timeseries" ),
yrs=pN$yrs,
method="sum",
redo=TRUE
)
# units: kt
# note: using pN, even though this is biomass
outputdir = file.path( carstm_filenames( pN, returnvalue="output_directory"), "aggregated_biomass_timeseries" )
ylabel = "Biomass index (kt)"
fn_ts = "biomass_M0.png"
vn = paste("biomass", "predicted", sep=".")
outputdir2 = file.path( carstm_filenames( pN, returnvalue="output_directory"), "predicted_biomass_densities" )
}
if (vns=="habitat") {
sims = carstm_posterior_simulations( pH=pH, pa_threshold=0.05, qmax=0.95 )
SM = aggregate_simulations(
sims=sims,
sppoly=sppoly,
fn=carstm_filenames( pN, returnvalue="filename", fn="aggregated_timeseries" ),
yrs=pN$yrs,
method="mean",
redo=TRUE
)
# units: probability
# note: using pN, even though this is habitat
outputdir = file.path( carstm_filenames( pN, returnvalue="output_directory"), "aggregated_habitat_timeseries" )
ylabel = "Habitat probability"
fn_ts = "habitat_M0.png"
vn = paste("habitat", "predicted", sep=".")
outputdir2 = file.path( carstm_filenames( pN, returnvalue="output_directory"), "predicted_habitat" )
}
RES= SM$RES
if ( !file.exists(outputdir)) dir.create( outputdir, recursive=TRUE, showWarnings=FALSE )
# plot effects
( fn = file.path( outputdir, "cfa_all.png") )
png( filename=fn, width=3072, height=2304, pointsize=12, res=300 )
plot( cfaall ~ yrs, data=RES, lty="solid", lwd=4, pch=20, col="slateblue", type="b", ylab=ylabel, xlab="")
lines( cfaall_lb ~ yrs, data=RES, lty="dotted", lwd=2, col="slategray" )
lines( cfaall_ub ~ yrs, data=RES, lty="dotted", lwd=2, col="slategray" )
dev.off()
( fn = file.path( outputdir, "cfa_south.png") )
png( filename=fn, width=3072, height=2304, pointsize=12, res=300 )
plot( cfasouth ~ yrs, data=RES, lty="solid", lwd=4, pch=20, col="slateblue", type="b", ylab=ylabel, xlab="")
lines( cfasouth_lb ~ yrs, data=RES, lty="dotted", lwd=2, col="slategray" )
lines( cfasouth_ub ~ yrs, data=RES, lty="dotted", lwd=2, col="slategray" )
dev.off()
( fn = file.path( outputdir, "cfa_north.png") )
png( filename=fn, width=3072, height=2304, pointsize=12, res=300 )
plot( cfanorth ~ yrs, data=RES, lty="solid", lwd=4, pch=20, col="slateblue", type="b", ylab=ylabel, xlab="")
lines( cfanorth_lb ~ yrs, data=RES, lty="dotted", lwd=2, col="slategray" )
lines( cfanorth_ub ~ yrs, data=RES, lty="dotted", lwd=2, col="slategray" )
dev.off()
( fn = file.path( outputdir, "cfa_4x.png") )
png( filename=fn, width=3072, height=2304, pointsize=12, res=300 )
plot( cfa4x ~ yrs, data=RES, lty="solid", lwd=4, pch=20, col="slateblue", type="b", ylab=ylabel, xlab="")
lines( cfa4x_lb ~ yrs, data=RES, lty="dotted", lwd=2, col="slategray" )
lines( cfa4x_ub ~ yrs, data=RES, lty="dotted", lwd=2, col="slategray" )
dev.off()
a = cbind( "cfanorth", RES[,c("yrs", "cfanorth", "cfanorth_lb", "cfanorth_ub")] )
b = cbind( "cfasouth", RES[,c("yrs", "cfasouth", "cfasouth_lb", "cfasouth_ub")] )
c = cbind( "cfa4x", RES[,c("yrs", "cfa4x", "cfa4x_lb", "cfa4x_ub")] )
names(a) = names(b) = names(c) = c("region", "year", "mean", "lb", "ub")
tdb = rbind(a, b, c)
tdb$region = factor(tdb$region, levels=regions, labels =region_label)
tdb = tdb[(which(!is.na(tdb$region))), ]
fn = file.path( outputdir, fn_ts )
if (vns=="abundance") {
out = ggplot(tdb, aes(x=year, y=mean, fill=region, colour=region)) +
geom_line( alpha=0.9, linewidth=1.2 ) +
geom_point(aes(shape=region), size=3, alpha=0.7 ) +
geom_errorbar(aes(ymin=lb,ymax=ub), linewidth=0.8, alpha=0.8, width=0.3) +
labs(x="Year/Année", y="Biomass index (kt) / Indice de biomasse (kt)", size = rel(1.5)) +
scale_colour_manual(values=color_map) +
scale_fill_manual(values=color_map) +
scale_shape_manual(values = c(15, 17, 19)) +
theme_light( base_size = 22) +
theme( legend.position="inside", legend.position.inside=c(0.75, 0.9), legend.title=element_blank()) +
scale_y_break(c(14, 28), scales = 1)
# scale_y_continuous( limits=c(0, 300) )
ggsave(filename=fn, plot=out, width=12, height = 8)
print(out)
# map it ..mean density
if ( !file.exists(outputdir2)) dir.create( outputdir2, recursive=TRUE, showWarnings=FALSE )
B = apply( sims, c(1,2), mean ) # sims units (kt);
B[ which(!is.finite(B)) ] = NA
# brks = pretty( log10( quantile( B[], probs=c(0.05, 0.95), na.rm=TRUE )* 10^6) )
sa = units::drop_units(sppoly$au_sa_km2)
brks = pretty( ( quantile( log(B * 10^6 / sa), probs=c(0.05, 0.95), na.rm=TRUE )) )
for (i in 1:length(pN$yrs) ) {
y = as.character( pN$yrs[i] )
# u = log10( B[,y]* 10^6 ) ## Total kt->kg: log10( kg )
u = log( B[,y]* 10^6 / sa) # ;; density log10( kg /km^2 )
sppoly[,vn] = u
outfilename = file.path( outputdir2 , paste( "biomass", y, "png", sep=".") )
carstm_map( sppoly=sppoly, vn=vn,
breaks=brks,
additional_features=additional_features,
legend.position.inside=c( 0.1, 0.9 ),
annotation=y,
# annotation=paste( "log_10( Predicted biomass density; kg/km^2 )", y ),
colors=rev(RColorBrewer::brewer.pal(5, "RdYlBu")),
outfilename=outfilename
)
} # end year loop
}
if (vns=="habitat") {
out = ggplot(tdb, aes(x=year, y=mean, fill=region, colour=region)) +
geom_line( alpha=0.9, linewidth=1.2 ) +
geom_point(aes(shape=region), size=3, alpha=0.7 ) +
geom_errorbar(aes(ymin=lb,ymax=ub), linewidth=0.8, alpha=0.8, width=0.3) +
labs(x="Year/Année", y="Viable habitat (probability) /\nHabitat viable (probabilité)", size = rel(1.0)) +
scale_colour_manual(values=color_map) +
scale_fill_manual(values=color_map) +
scale_shape_manual(values = c(15, 17, 19)) +
theme_light( base_size = 22) +
theme( legend.position="inside", legend.position.inside=c(0.75, 0.9), legend.title=element_blank())
# scale_y_continuous( limits=c(0, 300) )
ggsave(filename=fn, plot=out, width=12, height = 8)
print(out)
if ( !file.exists(outputdir2)) dir.create( outputdir2, recursive=TRUE, showWarnings=FALSE )
B = apply( sims, c(1,2), mean ) # sims units (kt);
B[ which(!is.finite(B)) ] = NA
# brks = pretty( log10( quantile( B[], probs=c(0.05, 0.95), na.rm=TRUE )* 10^6) )
sa = units::drop_units(sppoly$au_sa_km2)
brks = pretty( c(0, 1) )
for (i in 1:length(pN$yrs) ) {
y = as.character( pN$yrs[i] )
# u = log10( B[,y]* 10^6 ) ## Total kt->kg: log10( kg )
u = B[,y]
sppoly[,vn] = u
outfilename = file.path( outputdir2 , paste( "habitat", y, "png", sep=".") )
carstm_map( sppoly=sppoly, vn=vn,
breaks=brks,
additional_features=additional_features,
legend.position.inside=c( 0.1, 0.9 ),
annotation=y,
# annotation=paste( "log_10( Predicted biomass density; kg/km^2 )", y ),
colors=rev(RColorBrewer::brewer.pal(5, "RdYlBu")),
outfilename=outfilename
)
} # end year loop
}
} # end vns loop
# end assimilate size and numbers
Part 4: prep data for integration into the fishery model (discrete version of the logistic model)
The fishery model used for stock assessment is the biomass dynamics model. It is operated through Julia. This step creates the data required.
## note the output directory .. this is used for the next script
# saves in carstm_directory = file.path( modeldir, carstm_model_label )
run_is_operational = TRUE
# run_is_operational = FALSE
fishery_model_data_inputs(
year.assessment=year.assessment,
type="biomass_dynamics",
snowcrab_filter_class="fb",
modeldir= ifelse( run_is_operational, pN$modeldir, file.path( homedir, "projects", "dynamical_model", "snowcrab", "data" ) ),
carstm_model_label=carstm_model_label,
for_julia=TRUE,
fishery_model_label="turing1"
)
Rdata files are ready to load through Julia. Continue to step 04.snowcrab_fishery_model_turing.md to complete the assessment.
end
jae0/snowcrab documentation built on Nov. 6, 2024, 10:13 p.m.
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title: "Snow crab Areal unit modelling" author: - name: Snow crab group # orcid: 0000-0003-3632-5723 # email: jae.choi@dfo-mpo.gc.ca # email: choi.jae.seok@gmail.com # corresponding: true affiliation: - name: Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada city: Dartmouth state: NS url: www.bio.gc.ca date: 2024-08-17 keywords: - snow crab fishery assessment - areal-unit modelling of numerical abundance, habitat, mean weight - convolution of posterior-simulations of biomass abstract: | Snow crab modelling of numerical abundance, mean weight and habitat using conditional autoregressive models. Biomass is estimated from these components via multiplication of the posterior draws. toc: true number-sections: true highlight-style: pygments bibliography: media/references.bib
csl: media/canadian-journal-of-fisheries-and-aquatic-sciences.csl # see https://www.zotero.org/styles for more
license: "CC BY" copyright: holder: Jae S. Choi year: 2024 citation: container-title: https://github.com/jae0/bio.snowcrab/ doi: NA funding: "The snow crab scientific survey was funded by the snow crab fishers of Maritimes Region of Atlantic Canada." editor: render-on-save: false format: html: code-fold: true html-math-method: katex embed-resources: true pdf: pdf-engine: lualatex docx: default
Purpose
The snow crab biomass index is derived from the convolution of three separate Bayesian spatiotemporal model solutions via posterior simulation. This is completed through the carstm front-end to INLA, used to perform "non-separable" spatial Conditional autocorrelation (CAR) and temporal (AR1) models.
- Poisson model of positive valued numbers offset by swept area in space and time
- Mean body size (mass; kg) in space and time
- Presence-absence of organisms in space and time, where presence or absence is defined on a quantile threshold of numerical density presence_absence
The convolution of all three after posterior simulation is also known as a Hurdle or Delta model.
Part 1 -- construct basic parameter list defining the main characteristics of the study
#| label: setup
#| eval: true
#| output: false
require(aegis)
require(bio.snowcrab) # loadfunctions("bio.snowcrab")
year.start = 1999
year.assessment = 2023
yrs = year.start:year.assessment
spec_bio = bio.taxonomy::taxonomy.recode( from="spec", to="parsimonious", tolookup=2526 )
snowcrab_filter_class = "fb" # fishable biomass (including soft-shelled ) "m.mat" "f.mat" "imm"
carstm_model_label= paste( "default", snowcrab_filter_class, sep="_" )
# params for number
pN = snowcrab_parameters(
project_class="carstm",
yrs=yrs,
areal_units_type="tesselation",
carstm_model_label= carstm_model_label,
selection = list(
type = "number",
biologicals=list( spec_bio=spec_bio ),
biologicals_using_snowcrab_filter_class=snowcrab_filter_class
)
)
# params for mean size .. mostly the same as pN
pW = snowcrab_parameters(
project_class="carstm",
yrs=yrs,
areal_units_type="tesselation",
carstm_model_label= carstm_model_label,
selection = list(
type = "meansize",
biologicals=list( spec_bio=spec_bio ),
biologicals_using_snowcrab_filter_class=snowcrab_filter_class
)
)
# params for probability of observation
pH = snowcrab_parameters(
project_class="carstm",
yrs=yrs,
areal_units_type="tesselation",
carstm_model_label= carstm_model_label,
selection = list(
type = "presence_absence",
biologicals=list( spec_bio=spec_bio ),
biologicals_using_snowcrab_filter_class=snowcrab_filter_class
)
)
# areal units upon which carstm will operate ... this is made in 01.snowcrab.r
sppoly=areal_units( p=pN )
pN$space_name = sppoly$AUID
pN$space_id = 1:nrow(sppoly) # must match M$space
pN$time_name = as.character(pN$yrs)
pN$time_id = 1:pN$ny
pN$cyclic_name = as.character(pN$cyclic_levels)
pN$cyclic_id = 1:pN$nw
pW$space_name = sppoly$AUID
pW$space_id = 1:nrow(sppoly) # must match M$space
pW$time_name = as.character(pW$yrs)
pW$time_id = 1:pW$ny
pW$cyclic_name = as.character(pW$cyclic_levels)
pW$cyclic_id = 1:pW$nw
pH$space_name = sppoly$AUID
pH$space_id = 1:nrow(sppoly) # must match M$space
pH$time_name = as.character(pH$yrs)
pH$time_id = 1:pH$ny
pH$cyclic_name = as.character(pH$cyclic_levels)
pH$cyclic_id = 1:pH$nw
Now that parameter are loaded, we can create (run manually) or reload the input data (later).
#| label: input data
#| eval: false
#| output: false
# create model data inputs and the output fields
M = snowcrab.db( p=pN, DS="carstm_inputs", sppoly=sppoly, redo=TRUE ) # will redo if not found
Part 2 -- spatiotemporal statistical model
With all required parameters defined, the modelling is straightforward (run manually). Here we reused previous solution modes ("theta") to speed up solutions.
Each variable is modelled with the same covariates.
#| label: carstm-run
#| eval: false
#| output: false
# total numbers
sppoly = areal_units( p=pN )
M = snowcrab.db( p=pN, DS="carstm_inputs", sppoly=sppoly ) # will redo if not found
io = which(M$tag=="observations")
ip = which(M$tag=="predictions")
iq = unique( c( which( M$totno > 0), ip ) )
iw = unique( c( which( M$totno > 5), ip ) ) # need a good sample to estimate mean size
# number
carstm_model( p=pN, data=M[ iq, ], sppoly=sppoly,
theta=c( 2.7291,1.8146,2.9382,0.0132,3.8666,-0.0211,4.2673,5.5037,6.1421,0.2391,4.2522,0.7666,-0.0100,0.8763 ),
nposteriors=5000,
toget = c("summary", "random_spatial", "predictions"),
posterior_simulations_to_retain = c("predictions"),
family = "poisson",
verbose=TRUE,
# redo_fit=FALSE,
# debug = "summary",
# debug = "predictions",
num.threads="4:3"
)
# posterior predictive check
carstm_posterior_predictive_check(p=pN, M=M[ iq, ] )
# EXAMINE POSTERIORS AND PRIORS
res = carstm_model( p=pN, DS="carstm_summary" ) # parameters in p and summary
res_vars = c( names( res$hypers), names(res$fixed) )
for (i in 1:length(res_vars) ) {
o = carstm_prior_posterior_compare( res, vn=res_vars[i] )
dev.new(); print(o)
}
# mean size
carstm_model( p=pW, data=M[ iw, ], sppoly = sppoly,
# theta=c( 6.0911, 8.6746, 0.9708, 11.4664, -0.0007, 10.6392, 6.7992, 11.4451, 12.4703, 11.5656, 6.6841, 3.4669, 5.8501, 3.1671, 1.7484 ),
nposteriors=5000,
toget = c("summary", "random_spatial", "predictions"),
posterior_simulations_to_retain = c("predictions"),
family = "gaussian",
verbose=TRUE,
# redo_fit=FALSE,
# debug = "summary",
# control.inla = list( optimiser="gsl" ),
control.inla = list( strategy="laplace", optimiser="gsl", restart=1 ), # gsl = gsl::bfgs2
# control.mode = list( restart=TRUE ),
num.threads="4:3"
)
# posterior predictive check
carstm_posterior_predictive_check(p=pW, M=M[ iw, ] )
# EXAMINE POSTERIORS AND PRIORS
res = carstm_model( p=pW, DS="carstm_summary" ) # parameters in p and summary
res_vars = c( names( res$hypers), names(res$fixed) )
for (i in 1:length(res_vars) ) {
o = carstm_prior_posterior_compare( res, vn=res_vars[i] )
dev.new(); print(o)
}
# model pa using all data
carstm_model( p=pH, data=M, sppoly=sppoly,
theta = c( 0.8917, 2.0052, 4.5021, -0.0000, 1.5400, -2.4689, 1.1762, 2.6536, 2.9546, -2.1406, 3.5352, -0.7465, 3.2443, 2.4420
),
nposteriors=5000,
toget = c("summary", "random_spatial", "predictions"),
posterior_simulations_to_retain = c("predictions"),
family = "binomial", # "binomial", # "nbinomial", "betabinomial", "zeroinflatedbinomial0" , "zeroinflatednbinomial0"
verbose=TRUE,
# redo_fit=FALSE,
# debug = "summary",
# control.family=list(control.link=list(model="logit")), # default for binomial .. no need to specify
# control.inla = list( strategy="laplace", int.strategy="eb" ),
num.threads="4:3"
)
# posterior predictive check
carstm_posterior_predictive_check(p=pH, M=M[ , ] )
# EXAMINE POSTERIORS AND PRIORS
res = carstm_model( p=pH, DS="carstm_summary" ) # parameters in p and summary
res_vars = c( names( res$hypers), names(res$fixed) )
for (i in 1:length(res_vars) ) {
o = carstm_prior_posterior_compare( res, vn=res_vars[i] )
dev.new(); print(o)
}
# end spatiotemporal model
# some maps and plots
# for mapping below, some bathymetry and polygons
additional_features = snowcrab_mapping_features(pN)
for (vns in c( "number", "meansize", "habitat") ) {
#vns ="number"
#vns ="meansize"
#vns ="habitat"
if ( vns=="number" ) {
p=pN
ylab = "Number"
fn_root_prefix = "Predicted_numerical_abundance"
fn_root = "number"
# title= paste( snowcrab_filter_class, "Number; no./m^2" )
}
if ( vns=="meansize") {
p=pW
ylab = "Mean weight"
fn_root_prefix = "Predicted_meansize"
fn_root = "weight"
# title= paste( snowcrab_filter_class, "Mean weight; kg" )
}
if ( vns=="habitat" ) {
p=pH
ylab = "Probability"
fn_root_prefix = "Predicted_presence_absence"
fn_root = "habitat"
# title= paste( snowcrab_filter_class, "Probability")
}
outputdir = file.path( p$modeldir, p$carstm_model_label, "figures" )
if ( !file.exists(outputdir)) dir.create( outputdir, recursive=TRUE, showWarnings=FALSE )
# # to compute habitat prob
# sims = carstm_posterior_simulations( pH=pH, pa_threshold=0.05, qmax=0.95 )
# SM = aggregate_simulations(
# sims=sims,
# sppoly=sppoly,
# fn=carstm_filenames( pN, returnvalue="filename", fn="aggregated_timeseries" ),
# yrs=pN$yrs,
# method="mean",
# redo=TRUE
# )
# outputdir = file.path( carstm_filenames( pN, returnvalue="output_directory"), "aggregated_habitat_timeseries" )
# ylabel = "Habitat probability"
# fn_ts = "habitat_M0.png"
# vn = paste("habitat", "predicted", sep=".")
# outputdir2 = file.path( carstm_filenames( pN, returnvalue="output_directory"), "predicted_habitat" )
# to load currently saved results
res = carstm_model( p=p, DS="carstm_summary" ) # parameters in p and direct summary
res$direct
res = NULL; gc()
# plots with 95% PI
carstm_plot_marginaleffects( p, outputdir, fn_root )
# maps of some of the results
outputdirmap = file.path(p$modeldir, p$carstm_model_label, "maps" )
carstm_plot_map( p=p, outputdir=outputdirmap, fn_root_prefix=fn_root_prefix , additional_features=additional_features,
toplot="random_spatial", probs=c(0.025, 0.975) )
carstm_plot_map( p=p, outputdir=outputdirmap, fn_root_prefix=fn_root_prefix , additional_features=additional_features,
toplot="predictions", probs=c(0.1, 0.9))
}
Part 3: assimilation of models
Convolution is straightforward as it is operating upon joint posterior simulations. Add more maps/figures as required.
# wgts_max = 1.1 # kg, hard upper limit
# N_max = NULL
# # quantile( M$totno[ipositive]/M$data_offset[ipositive], probs=0.95, na.rm=TRUE )
# posterior sims
require(ggplot2)
library(ggbreak)
regions = c("cfanorth", "cfasouth", "cfa4x" )
region_label = c("N-ENS", "S-ENS", "4X")
color_map = c("#E69F00", "#56B4E9", "#CC79A7" )
additional_features = snowcrab_mapping_features(pN)
sppoly = areal_units( p=pN ) # to reload
for ( vns in c("abundance", "habitat") ) {
if (vns=="abundance") {
sims = carstm_posterior_simulations( pN=pN, pW=pW, pH=pH, pa_threshold=0.05, qmax=0.95 )
sims = sims / 10^6 # units: kg ; div (10^6) -> kt ;;
# sims[ which(!is.finite(sppoly$npts)),, ] = 0
SM = aggregate_simulations(
sims=sims,
sppoly=sppoly,
fn=carstm_filenames( pN, returnvalue="filename", fn="aggregated_timeseries" ),
yrs=pN$yrs,
method="sum",
redo=TRUE
)
# units: kt
# note: using pN, even though this is biomass
outputdir = file.path( carstm_filenames( pN, returnvalue="output_directory"), "aggregated_biomass_timeseries" )
ylabel = "Biomass index (kt)"
fn_ts = "biomass_M0.png"
vn = paste("biomass", "predicted", sep=".")
outputdir2 = file.path( carstm_filenames( pN, returnvalue="output_directory"), "predicted_biomass_densities" )
}
if (vns=="habitat") {
sims = carstm_posterior_simulations( pH=pH, pa_threshold=0.05, qmax=0.95 )
SM = aggregate_simulations(
sims=sims,
sppoly=sppoly,
fn=carstm_filenames( pN, returnvalue="filename", fn="aggregated_timeseries" ),
yrs=pN$yrs,
method="mean",
redo=TRUE
)
# units: probability
# note: using pN, even though this is habitat
outputdir = file.path( carstm_filenames( pN, returnvalue="output_directory"), "aggregated_habitat_timeseries" )
ylabel = "Habitat probability"
fn_ts = "habitat_M0.png"
vn = paste("habitat", "predicted", sep=".")
outputdir2 = file.path( carstm_filenames( pN, returnvalue="output_directory"), "predicted_habitat" )
}
RES= SM$RES
if ( !file.exists(outputdir)) dir.create( outputdir, recursive=TRUE, showWarnings=FALSE )
# plot effects
( fn = file.path( outputdir, "cfa_all.png") )
png( filename=fn, width=3072, height=2304, pointsize=12, res=300 )
plot( cfaall ~ yrs, data=RES, lty="solid", lwd=4, pch=20, col="slateblue", type="b", ylab=ylabel, xlab="")
lines( cfaall_lb ~ yrs, data=RES, lty="dotted", lwd=2, col="slategray" )
lines( cfaall_ub ~ yrs, data=RES, lty="dotted", lwd=2, col="slategray" )
dev.off()
( fn = file.path( outputdir, "cfa_south.png") )
png( filename=fn, width=3072, height=2304, pointsize=12, res=300 )
plot( cfasouth ~ yrs, data=RES, lty="solid", lwd=4, pch=20, col="slateblue", type="b", ylab=ylabel, xlab="")
lines( cfasouth_lb ~ yrs, data=RES, lty="dotted", lwd=2, col="slategray" )
lines( cfasouth_ub ~ yrs, data=RES, lty="dotted", lwd=2, col="slategray" )
dev.off()
( fn = file.path( outputdir, "cfa_north.png") )
png( filename=fn, width=3072, height=2304, pointsize=12, res=300 )
plot( cfanorth ~ yrs, data=RES, lty="solid", lwd=4, pch=20, col="slateblue", type="b", ylab=ylabel, xlab="")
lines( cfanorth_lb ~ yrs, data=RES, lty="dotted", lwd=2, col="slategray" )
lines( cfanorth_ub ~ yrs, data=RES, lty="dotted", lwd=2, col="slategray" )
dev.off()
( fn = file.path( outputdir, "cfa_4x.png") )
png( filename=fn, width=3072, height=2304, pointsize=12, res=300 )
plot( cfa4x ~ yrs, data=RES, lty="solid", lwd=4, pch=20, col="slateblue", type="b", ylab=ylabel, xlab="")
lines( cfa4x_lb ~ yrs, data=RES, lty="dotted", lwd=2, col="slategray" )
lines( cfa4x_ub ~ yrs, data=RES, lty="dotted", lwd=2, col="slategray" )
dev.off()
a = cbind( "cfanorth", RES[,c("yrs", "cfanorth", "cfanorth_lb", "cfanorth_ub")] )
b = cbind( "cfasouth", RES[,c("yrs", "cfasouth", "cfasouth_lb", "cfasouth_ub")] )
c = cbind( "cfa4x", RES[,c("yrs", "cfa4x", "cfa4x_lb", "cfa4x_ub")] )
names(a) = names(b) = names(c) = c("region", "year", "mean", "lb", "ub")
tdb = rbind(a, b, c)
tdb$region = factor(tdb$region, levels=regions, labels =region_label)
tdb = tdb[(which(!is.na(tdb$region))), ]
fn = file.path( outputdir, fn_ts )
if (vns=="abundance") {
out = ggplot(tdb, aes(x=year, y=mean, fill=region, colour=region)) +
geom_line( alpha=0.9, linewidth=1.2 ) +
geom_point(aes(shape=region), size=3, alpha=0.7 ) +
geom_errorbar(aes(ymin=lb,ymax=ub), linewidth=0.8, alpha=0.8, width=0.3) +
labs(x="Year/Année", y="Biomass index (kt) / Indice de biomasse (kt)", size = rel(1.5)) +
scale_colour_manual(values=color_map) +
scale_fill_manual(values=color_map) +
scale_shape_manual(values = c(15, 17, 19)) +
theme_light( base_size = 22) +
theme( legend.position="inside", legend.position.inside=c(0.75, 0.9), legend.title=element_blank()) +
scale_y_break(c(14, 28), scales = 1)
# scale_y_continuous( limits=c(0, 300) )
ggsave(filename=fn, plot=out, width=12, height = 8)
print(out)
# map it ..mean density
if ( !file.exists(outputdir2)) dir.create( outputdir2, recursive=TRUE, showWarnings=FALSE )
B = apply( sims, c(1,2), mean ) # sims units (kt);
B[ which(!is.finite(B)) ] = NA
# brks = pretty( log10( quantile( B[], probs=c(0.05, 0.95), na.rm=TRUE )* 10^6) )
sa = units::drop_units(sppoly$au_sa_km2)
brks = pretty( ( quantile( log(B * 10^6 / sa), probs=c(0.05, 0.95), na.rm=TRUE )) )
for (i in 1:length(pN$yrs) ) {
y = as.character( pN$yrs[i] )
# u = log10( B[,y]* 10^6 ) ## Total kt->kg: log10( kg )
u = log( B[,y]* 10^6 / sa) # ;; density log10( kg /km^2 )
sppoly[,vn] = u
outfilename = file.path( outputdir2 , paste( "biomass", y, "png", sep=".") )
carstm_map( sppoly=sppoly, vn=vn,
breaks=brks,
additional_features=additional_features,
legend.position.inside=c( 0.1, 0.9 ),
annotation=y,
# annotation=paste( "log_10( Predicted biomass density; kg/km^2 )", y ),
colors=rev(RColorBrewer::brewer.pal(5, "RdYlBu")),
outfilename=outfilename
)
} # end year loop
}
if (vns=="habitat") {
out = ggplot(tdb, aes(x=year, y=mean, fill=region, colour=region)) +
geom_line( alpha=0.9, linewidth=1.2 ) +
geom_point(aes(shape=region), size=3, alpha=0.7 ) +
geom_errorbar(aes(ymin=lb,ymax=ub), linewidth=0.8, alpha=0.8, width=0.3) +
labs(x="Year/Année", y="Viable habitat (probability) /\nHabitat viable (probabilité)", size = rel(1.0)) +
scale_colour_manual(values=color_map) +
scale_fill_manual(values=color_map) +
scale_shape_manual(values = c(15, 17, 19)) +
theme_light( base_size = 22) +
theme( legend.position="inside", legend.position.inside=c(0.75, 0.9), legend.title=element_blank())
# scale_y_continuous( limits=c(0, 300) )
ggsave(filename=fn, plot=out, width=12, height = 8)
print(out)
if ( !file.exists(outputdir2)) dir.create( outputdir2, recursive=TRUE, showWarnings=FALSE )
B = apply( sims, c(1,2), mean ) # sims units (kt);
B[ which(!is.finite(B)) ] = NA
# brks = pretty( log10( quantile( B[], probs=c(0.05, 0.95), na.rm=TRUE )* 10^6) )
sa = units::drop_units(sppoly$au_sa_km2)
brks = pretty( c(0, 1) )
for (i in 1:length(pN$yrs) ) {
y = as.character( pN$yrs[i] )
# u = log10( B[,y]* 10^6 ) ## Total kt->kg: log10( kg )
u = B[,y]
sppoly[,vn] = u
outfilename = file.path( outputdir2 , paste( "habitat", y, "png", sep=".") )
carstm_map( sppoly=sppoly, vn=vn,
breaks=brks,
additional_features=additional_features,
legend.position.inside=c( 0.1, 0.9 ),
annotation=y,
# annotation=paste( "log_10( Predicted biomass density; kg/km^2 )", y ),
colors=rev(RColorBrewer::brewer.pal(5, "RdYlBu")),
outfilename=outfilename
)
} # end year loop
}
} # end vns loop
# end assimilate size and numbers
Part 4: prep data for integration into the fishery model (discrete version of the logistic model)
The fishery model used for stock assessment is the biomass dynamics model. It is operated through Julia. This step creates the data required.
## note the output directory .. this is used for the next script
# saves in carstm_directory = file.path( modeldir, carstm_model_label )
run_is_operational = TRUE
# run_is_operational = FALSE
fishery_model_data_inputs(
year.assessment=year.assessment,
type="biomass_dynamics",
snowcrab_filter_class="fb",
modeldir= ifelse( run_is_operational, pN$modeldir, file.path( homedir, "projects", "dynamical_model", "snowcrab", "data" ) ),
carstm_model_label=carstm_model_label,
for_julia=TRUE,
fishery_model_label="turing1"
)
Rdata files are ready to load through Julia. Continue to step 04.snowcrab_fishery_model_turing.md to complete the assessment.
end
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