NEWS.md

naomi 2.10.8

naomi 2.10.7

naomi 2.10.6

naomi 2.10.5

naomi 2.10.4

naomi 2.10.3

naomi 2.10.2

naomi 2.10.1

naomi 2.10.0

naomi 2.9.29

naomi 2.9.28

naomi 2.9.27

naomi 2.9.26

naomi 2.9.25

naomi 2.9.24

naomi 2.9.23

naomi 2.9.22

naomi 2.9.21

naomi 2.9.20

naomi 2.9.19

naomi 2.9.18

naomi 2.9.17

naomi 2.9.16

naomi 2.9.15

naomi 2.9.14

naomi 2.9.13

naomi 2.9.12

naomi 2.9.11

naomi 2.9.10

naomi 2.9.9

naomi 2.9.8

naomi 2.9.7

naomi 2.9.6

naomi 2.9.5

naomi 2.9.4

naomi 2.9.3

naomi 2.9.2

naomi 2.9.1

naomi 2.9.0

naomi 2.8.17

naomi 2.8.16

naomi 2.8.15

naomi 2.8.14

naomi 2.8.13

naomi 2.8.12

naomi 2.8.11

naomi 2.8.10

naomi 2.8.9

naomi 2.8.8

naomi 2.8.7

naomi 2.8.6

naomi 2.8.5

No user-visible changes, only internal.

naomi 2.8.4

naomi 2.8.3

naomi 2.8.2

naomi 2.8.1

naomi 2.8.0

naomi 2.7.19

naomi 2.7.18

Update for Spectrum v6.2 with calendar year projection period instead of mid-year projection.

naomi 2.7.17

naomi 2.7.16

naomi 2.7.15

naomi 2.7.14

naomi 2.7.13

naomi 2.7.12

naomi 2.7.11

naomi 2.7.10

naomi 2.7.9

naomi 2.7.8

naomi 2.7.7

naomi 2.7.6

naomi 2.7.5

Previously, new infections by age were calculated as: (1 - exp(-lambda_t1 * duration)) * hiv_negative_t1. This implicitly assumed that incidence rate and HIV negative population size were constant over the period from T1 to T2. This was reasonably okay for short periods, but less acceptable when time from T1 to T2 becomes many years. In settings with declining infections, this approach will tend to over-estimate the number of PLHIV at T2.

New approach calculates infections in one year by age and sex based on lambda_t1 and then extrapolates to the number of infections between T1 and T2 based on the ratio of the number of infections occurring in Spectrum between T1 and T2 to the number of infections in the year preceding T1 (Spectrum definition for infections). This calculation also accounts for the number progressing from the age group at infection to the age group at T2 based on Spectrum infections by cohort (same as previous implementation).

The model accounts for impact of different ART coverage levels at T1 on district-level transmission rate and incidence, but does not account for differential change in ART coverage between T1 and T2. That is, a larger scale-up in ART in district A than district B between T1 and T2 would not result in a larger relative decline in incidence in A than B during this period.

The model does not explicitly account for mortality among infections between T1 and T2, but this is implicitly handled how new infections are subtracted away from the cohort survival probabilities for PLHIV at baseline.

Better handling of incidence changes over time and mortality probably need a more complete simulation model rather than the single time jump approximation.

naomi 2.7.4

naomi 2.7.3

naomi 2.7.2

naomi 2.7.1

naomi 2.7.0

Updates for 2023 UNAIDS estimates (Dec 2022 - Mar 2023).

naomi 2.6.28

naomi 2.6.27

naomi 2.6.26

naomi 2.6.25

naomi 2.6.24

naomi 2.6.23

naomi 2.6.22

naomi 2.6.21

naomi 2.6.19

naomi 2.6.18

naomi 2.6.17

naomi 2.6.16

naomi 2.6.15

naomi 2.6.14

Applying the ratio is controlled by the argument adjust_area_growth = TRUE to naomi_model_frame().

This is currently set as FALSE by default. Pending further testing in problematic cases.

Limitations of this approach: (1) It does not explicitly account for migration of PLHIV between districts. Therefore, it may 'create' or 'dissolve' infections if net population growth is greater in high prevalence districts (and vice versa). This is consistent with Spectrum and EPP handling of migration, but implications could be larger for smaller subnational areas. (2) In some cases, these net migration ratios mask unrealistic demographic assumptions in subnational population data (rather than true net migration patterns).

Internal changes

naomi 2.6.13

naomi 2.6.12

naomi 2.6.11

naomi 2.6.10

naomi 2.6.9

naomi 2.6.8

naomi 2.6.7

naomi 2.6.6

naomi 2.6.5

naomi 2.6.4

naomi 2.6.3

naomi 2.6.2

naomi 2.6.1

naomi 2.6.0

Internal changes

naomi 2.5.21

naomi 2.5.20

naomi 2.5.19

naomi 2.5.18

naomi 2.5.17

naomi 2.5.16

naomi 2.5.15

naomi 2.5.14

naomi 2.5.13

naomi 2.5.12

naomi 2.5.11

naomi 2.5.10

naomi 2.5.9

naomi 2.5.8

naomi 2.5.7

naomi 2.5.5

naomi 2.5.4

Updates to PEPFAR Data Pack outputs.

naomi 2.5.3

naomi 2.5.2

naomi 2.5.1

naomi 2.5.0

naomi 2.4.2

naomi 2.4.1

naomi 2.4.0

naomi 2.3.15

naomi 2.3.14

naomi 2.3.13

naomi 2.3.12

naomi 2.3.11

naomi 2.3.10

naomi 2.3.9

naomi 2.3.8

naomi 2.3.7

naomi 2.3.6

naomi 2.3.5

naomi 2.3.4

naomi 2.3.3

naomi 2.3.2

naomi 2.3.1

naomi 2.3.0

naomi 2.2.5

naomi 2.2.4

naomi 2.2.3

naomi 2.2.2

naomi 2.2.1

naomi 2.2.0

This does not change the model at all, reduces the fitting time noticeably because the starting values for the linear predictor for the 'inner optimisation' step do not change resulting from steps in the hyperparameters.

Implementation for the BYM2 model follows the sparsity preserving conditional parameterisation described by Riebler et al. in Section 3.4.

naomi 2.1.14

naomi 2.1.13

naomi 2.1.12

naomi 2.1.11

naomi 2.1.10

naomi 2.1.9

naomi 2.1.8

naomi 2.1.7

naomi 2.1.6

naomi 2.1.5

naomi 2.1.4

naomi 2.1.3

Awareness of HIV status

PEPFAR Data Pack

Additional changes

naomi 2.1.2

naomi 2.1.1

naomi 2.1.0

This release revises the modelling of ANC prevalence and ART coverage and produces outputs for district-level ANC testing cascade.

ANC testing cascade

Currently these indicators are calculated assuming that the number of 'known positive' ANC attendees are the same as the number already on ART.

Age-stratified ANC testing do not yet inform national or district level estimates for age-specific fertility or HIV/ART fertility rate ratios.

Additional changes:

naomi 2.0.7

naomi 2.0.6

naomi 2.0.5

naomi 2.0.4

naomi 2.0.3

naomi 2.0.2

naomi 2.0.1

naomi 2.0.0

Version 2.0 established for 2021 UNAIDS estimates. Changes are not guaranteed to be backward compatible with 2020 version of Naomi model.

Internal changes:

naomi 1.0.11

naomi 1.0.10

naomi 1.0.9

naomi 1.0.8

naomi 1.0.7

naomi 1.0.6

naomi 1.0.5

naomi 1.0.4

naomi 1.0.2

naomi 1.0.0

naomi 0.0.72

naomi 0.0.71

naomi 0.0.70

naomi 0.0.69

naomi 0.0.68

naomi 0.0.67

naomi 0.0.66

naomi 0.0.65

naomi 0.0.64

naomi 0.0.63

naomi 0.0.62

naomi 0.0.61

noami 0.0.59

noami 0.0.58

naomi 0.0.57

Formatting updates requested for Data Pack 2019:

naomi 0.0.56

naomi 0.0.55

naomi 0.0.54

naomi 0.0.53

naomi 0.0.52

naomi 0.0.51

naomi 0.0.50

naomi 0.0.49

naomi 0.0.48

naomi 0.0.47

naomi 0.0.46

This is for development and comparison purposes, not for production use.

naomi 0.0.45

naomi 0.0.44

naomi 0.0.43

naomi 0.0.42

naomi 0.0.41

naomi 0.0.40

naomi 0.0.39

naomi 0.0.38

naomi 0.0.37

naomi 0.0.36

naomi 0.0.35

naomi 0.0.34

naomi 0.0.33

naomi 0.0.32

naomi 0.0.31

naomi 0.0.30

naomi 0.0.29

naomi 0.0.28

naomi 0.0.27

naomi 0.0.25

naomi 0.0.25

naomi 0.0.24

naomi 0.0.23

naomi 0.0.22

naomi 0.0.21

naomi 0.0.20

naomi 0.0.19

naomi 0.0.18

naomi 0.0.17

naomi 0.0.16

naomi 0.0.15

naomi 0.0.14

naomi 0.0.13

naomi 0.0.12

naomi 0.0.11

naomi 0.0.10

naomi 0.0.9

naomi 0.0.8

naomi 0.0.7

naomi 0.0.6

naomi 0.0.5

naomi 0.0.4

naomi 0.0.3

naomi 0.0.2

naomi 0.0.1



mrc-ide/naomi documentation built on Jan. 6, 2025, 10:20 a.m.