add_2pt_probs: Get 2pt decision probabilities

In nflverse/nfl4th: Functions to Calculate Optimal Fourth Down Decisions in the National Football League

Get 2pt decision probabilities

Description

Get various probabilities associated with each option on PATs (go for it, kick PAT).

Usage

add_2pt_probs(df)

Arguments

df	A data frame of decisions to be computed for.

Value

Original data frame Data frame plus the following columns added:

first_down_prob, wp_fail, wp_succeed, go_wp, fg_make_prob, miss_fg_wp, make_fg_wp, fg_wp, punt_wp

wp_0

Win probability when scoring 0 points on PAT.

wp_1

Win probability when scoring 1 point on PAT.

wp_2

Win probability when scoring 2 points on PAT.

conv_1pt

Probability of making PAT kick.

conv_2pt

Probability of converting 2-pt attempt.

wp_go1

Win probability associated with going for 1.

wp_go2

Win probability associated with going for 2.

Examples

play <-
  tibble::tibble(
    # things to help find the right game (use "reg" or "post")
    home_team = "GB",
    away_team = "TB",
    posteam = "GB",
    type = "post",
    season = 2020,

    # information about the situation
    qtr = 4,
    quarter_seconds_remaining = 123,
    score_differential = -2,

    home_opening_kickoff = 0,
    posteam_timeouts_remaining = 3,
    defteam_timeouts_remaining = 3
  )

probs <- nfl4th::add_2pt_probs(play)

dplyr::glimpse(probs)

nflverse/nfl4th documentation built on Sept. 28, 2024, 2:30 a.m.