add_4th_probs: Get 4th down decision probabilities

In nflverse/nfl4th: Functions to Calculate Optimal Fourth Down Decisions in the National Football League

Get 4th down decision probabilities

Description

Get various probabilities associated with each option on 4th downs (go for it, kick field goal, punt).

Usage

add_4th_probs(df)

Arguments

df	A data frame of decisions to be computed for.

Value

Original data frame Data frame plus the following columns added:

go_boost

Gain (or loss) in win prob associated with choosing to go for it (percentage points).

first_down_prob

Probability of earning a first down if going for it on 4th down.

wp_fail

Win probability in the event of a failed 4th down attempt.

wp_succeed

Win probability in the event of a successful 4th down attempt.

go_wp

Average win probability when going for it on 4th down.

fg_make_prob

Probability of making field goal.

miss_fg_wp

Win probability in the event of a missed field goal.

make_fg_wp

Win probability in the event of a made field goal.

fg_wp

Average win probability when attempting field goal.

punt_wp

Average win probability when punting.

Examples

play <-
  tibble::tibble(
    # things to help find the right game (use "reg" or "post")
    home_team = "GB",
    away_team = "TB",
    posteam = "GB",
    type = "post",
    season = 2020,

    # information about the situation
    qtr = 4,
    quarter_seconds_remaining = 129,
    ydstogo = 8,
    yardline_100 = 8,
    score_differential = -8,

    home_opening_kickoff = 0,
    posteam_timeouts_remaining = 3,
    defteam_timeouts_remaining = 3
  )

probs <- nfl4th::add_4th_probs(play)

dplyr::glimpse(probs)

nflverse/nfl4th documentation built on Sept. 28, 2024, 2:30 a.m.