mrremind: MadRat REMIND Input Data Package

calcCapacityNuclear <- function() {
  ### overall philosophy:
  ## currently under construction goes online over the 5-year long 2020 timestep
  ## 90% of planned and 60% of proposed plants can come online in 2025 or 2030 timestep
  ## this corresponds well with maximum to be expected capacities for India and China
  ## China target 120-150 GW in 2030 (https://af.reuters.com/article/africaTech/idAFL3N16M3QX)
  ## India 63 GW in 2032 (though pre-Fukushima) (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/power/india-eyeing-63000-mw-nuclear-power-capacity-by-2032-npcil/articleshow/6730724.cms)

  # additional assumption: gross-net losses vary between 3 (Shin-Kori Unit 3)- 12 (Fuqing Unit 5) %, so 5% seems good assumption:
  grossnet <- 1.05
  x <- readSource("IAEA")

  out <- new.magpie(getRegions(x), c(2015, 2020, 2025, 2030), "tnrs")
  # allocate data and convert from MW into TW
  # total capacity in 2015: snapshot of operable reactors in early 2016
  out[, 2015, ] <- setYears(x[, 2016, "REACTORS OPERABLE (MWe net)"] / 1000000, 2015)
  # total capacity addition for next 5 years: under construction + plants that came online between early 2016 and August 2018
  out[, 2020, ] <- (0.7 * setYears(x[, 2020, "REACTORS UNDER CONSTRUCTION (MWe gross)"] / grossnet, 2020)
                    + setYears(x[, 2020, "REACTORS OPERABLE (MWe net)"], NULL)
                    - setYears(x[, 2016, "REACTORS OPERABLE (MWe net)"], NULL)) / 1000000
  # maximum capacity addition for 5 years in 2025 period: 40% of planned and 30% of proposed, + 10% of 2015 to represent extensions
  # out[,2025,] <- (
  #               0.5*setYears(x[,2018,"REACTORS PLANNED (MWe gross)"]/grossnet,2025)
  #             + 0.3*setYears(x[,2018,"REACTORS PROPOSED (MWe gross)"]/grossnet,NULL)
  #             + 0.1*setYears(x[,2016,"REACTORS OPERABLE (MWe net)"],NULL)) / 1000000
  out[, 2025, ] <- (0.3 * setYears(x[, 2020, "REACTORS UNDER CONSTRUCTION (MWe gross)"] / grossnet, 2025)
                    + 0.4 * setYears(x[, 2020, "REACTORS PLANNED (MWe gross)"] / grossnet, NULL)
                    + 0.3 * setYears(x[, 2020, "REACTORS PROPOSED (MWe gross)"] / grossnet, NULL)
                    + 0.1 * setYears(x[, 2016, "REACTORS OPERABLE (MWe net)"], NULL)) / 1000000
  # maximum capacity addition for 5 years in 2025 period: 60% of planned and 70% of proposed, + 10% of 2015 to represent extensions
  out[, 2030, ] <- (
    0.6 * setYears(x[, 2020, "REACTORS PLANNED (MWe gross)"] / grossnet, 2030)
    + 0.7 * setYears(x[, 2020, "REACTORS PROPOSED (MWe gross)"] / grossnet, NULL)
    + 0.1 * setYears(x[, 2016, "REACTORS OPERABLE (MWe net)"], NULL)) / 1000000

  # special treatment for countries in the list (considering last political decisions)
  #  out["VNM",2025,] <- 0 #Vietnam has paused the nuclear program, so first operation definitely not earlier
  # than 2028 http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/vietnam.aspx
  # special treatment to avoid infeasibility and open nuclear potential for Africa
  # all countries not in the list of proposed plants, but rated as "Developing plans" can have a 500MW in 2025 and 2GW in 2030 periods
  # http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/others/emerging-nuclear-energy-countries.aspx
  # Israel, Nigeria, Kenya, Laos, Malaysia, Morocco, Algeria
  # out["ISR",2025,] <- 0.0005
  out["NGA", 2025, ] <- 0.0005
  out["KEN", 2025, ] <- 0.0005
  out["LAO", 2025, ] <- 0.0005
  # out["MYS",2025,] <- 0.0005
  out["MAR", 2025, ] <- 0.0005
  out["DZA", 2025, ] <- 0.0005
  out["PHL", 2025, ] <- 0.0005
  out["GHA", 2025, ] <- 0.0005
  out["RWA", 2025, ] <- 0.0005
  out["ETH", 2025, ] <- 0.0005
  # out["ISR",2030,] <- 0.002
  out["NGA", 2030, ] <- 0.002
  out["KEN", 2030, ] <- 0.002
  out["LAO", 2030, ] <- 0.002
  # out["MYS",2030,] <- 0.002
  out["MAR", 2030, ] <- 0.002
  out["DZA", 2030, ] <- 0.002
  out["PHL", 2030, ] <- 0.002
  out["GHA", 2030, ] <- 0.002
  out["RWA", 2030, ] <- 0.002
  out["ETH", 2030, ] <- 0.002
  # China didn't build nuclear as fast as expected.
  # Until newer IAEA data is downloaded and read in, here are hard-coded values:
  out["CHN", 2020, ] <- 0.021
  out["CHN", 2025, ] <- 0.021

  return(list(x = out, weight = NULL, unit = "TW",
              description = "capacity of operating nuclear plants in 2015, fixed additions for 5-year period 2020, and upper limits on additions for 5-year periods 2025 and 2030")
         )

}