meanf: Mean Forecast

Description Usage Arguments Details Value Author(s) See Also Examples

Description

Returns forecasts and prediction intervals for an iid model applied to y.

Usage

1
meanf(y, h=10, level=c(80,95), fan=FALSE, lambda=NULL, biasadj=FALSE, x=y)

Arguments

y

a numeric vector or time series

h

Number of periods for forecasting

level

Confidence levels for prediction intervals.

fan

If TRUE, level is set to seq(51,99,by=3). This is suitable for fan plots.

lambda

Box-Cox transformation parameter. Ignored if NULL. Otherwise, forecasts back-transformed via an inverse Box-Cox transformation.

biasadj

Use adjusted back-transformed mean for Box-Cox transformations. If TRUE, point forecasts and fitted values are mean forecast. Otherwise, these points can be considered the median of the forecast densities.

x

Deprecated. Included for backwards compatibility.

Details

The iid model is

Y[t]=mu + Z[t]

where Z[t] is a normal iid error. Forecasts are given by

Y[n+h]=mu

where mu is estimated by the sample mean.

Value

An object of class "forecast".

The function summary is used to obtain and print a summary of the results, while the function plot produces a plot of the forecasts and prediction intervals.

The generic accessor functions fitted.values and residuals extract useful features of the value returned by meanf.

An object of class "forecast" is a list containing at least the following elements:

model

A list containing information about the fitted model

method

The name of the forecasting method as a character string

mean

Point forecasts as a time series

lower

Lower limits for prediction intervals

upper

Upper limits for prediction intervals

level

The confidence values associated with the prediction intervals

x

The original time series (either object itself or the time series used to create the model stored as object).

residuals

Residuals from the fitted model. That is x minus fitted values.

fitted

Fitted values (one-step forecasts)

Author(s)

Rob J Hyndman

See Also

rwf

Examples

1
2
nile.fcast <- meanf(Nile, h=10)
plot(nile.fcast)

pli2016/forecast documentation built on May 25, 2019, 8:22 a.m.