project_rain | R Documentation |
This function projects rainfall in each of the Haitian departements. The rainfall is used as a covariate in Model 3.
project_rain(end_date = as.Date("2029-12-20"), include_data = FALSE)
end_date |
Date object representing when the projection of rainfall should stop. |
include_data |
Boolean indicating the observed data should be included in the result. |
The rainfall projection is made by assuming that the rainfall on certain dates in the future will be similar to the rainfall on the same dates in previous years. Therefore the projection is made by the following steps:
Starting from 1 day after the available data (either actual data or projected rainfall from previous steps), get the 14-day window of dates in which rainfall will be projected.
With this 14-day window, randomly select a year in the past in which actual rainfall data is available.
Project the rainfall on the selected 14-day window by using the observed rainfall measurements over the same dates in the randomly selected year.
Repeat the process until a projection for all desired dates in the future is obtained.
Note that this forecasting procedure is stochastic and that a different rainfall projection will be obtained each time the function is called. While it is unlikely that this function will provide precise estimates of future rainfall, it will likely capture seasonal trends in rainfall that may affect the spread of Cholera in Haiti.
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