de.Finetti.Game: de Finetti's Game

Description Usage Arguments Details Value Author(s) See Also

View source: R/de.Finetti.Game.R


The de.Finetti.Game function estimates the interval of a subjective probability regarding a possible event in the near future.





This is the maximum acceptable width of the interval for the returned subjective probability. The user must specify a width between 0 and 1.


This function is a variation on the game introduced by de Finetti, who is one of the main developers of subjective probability, along with Ramsey and Savage. In the original context, de Finetti proposed a gamble regarding life on Mars one billion years ago.

The frequentist interpretation of probability defines the probability of an event as the limit of its relative frequency in a large number of trials. Frequentist inference is undefined, for example, when there are no trials from which to calculate a probability. By defining probability relative to frequencies of physical events, frequentists attempt to objectify probability. However, de Finetti asserts that the frequentist (or objective) interpretation always reduces to a subjective interpretation of probability, because probability is a human construct and does not exist independently of humans in nature. Therefore, probability is a degree of belief, and is called subjective or personal probability.


The de.Finetti.Game function returns a vector of length two. The respective elements are the lower and upper bounds of the subjective probability of the participant regarding the possible event in the near future.


Statisticat, LLC. [email protected]

See Also


LaplacesDemon documentation built on May 29, 2017, 11:54 p.m.