tests/est.R0.TD.R

In R0: Estimation of R0 and Real-Time Reproduction Number from Epidemics

#Loading package
library(R0)

## Data is taken from the paper by Nishiura for key transmission parameters of an institutional
## outbreak during 1918 influenza pandemic in Germany)

data(Germany.1918)
mGT <- generation.time("gamma", c(3, 1.5))
TD <- est.R0.TD(Germany.1918, mGT, begin=1, end=126, nsim=100)
# Warning messages:
# 1: In est.R0.TD(Germany.1918, mGT) : Simulations may take several minutes.
# 2: In est.R0.TD(Germany.1918, mGT) : Using initial incidence as initial number of cases.
TD
# Reproduction number estimate using  Time-Dependent  method.
# 2.322239 2.272013 1.998474 1.843703 2.019297 1.867488 1.644993 1.553265 1.553317 1.601317 ...

## An interesting way to look at these results is to agregate initial data by longest time unit,
## such as weekly incidence. This gives a global overview of the epidemic.
TD.weekly <- smooth.Rt(TD, 7)
TD.weekly
# Reproduction number estimate using  Time-Dependant  method.
# 1.878424 1.580976 1.356918 1.131633 0.9615463 0.8118902 0.8045254 0.8395747 0.8542518 0.8258094..
plot(TD.weekly)