brierScore | R Documentation |
Computes Brier Scores for climatology, raw ensemble, and ensemble forecasting models given observation thresholds.
brierScore( fit, ensembleData, thresholds, dates = NULL, ...)
fit |
A model fit to ensemble forecasting data. |
ensembleData |
An |
thresholds |
One or more threshold values for the Brier score computations. |
dates |
The dates for which the Brier score will be computed.
These dates must be consistent with |
... |
Included for generic function compatibility. |
A data frame giving the Brier Scores for climatology
(empirical distribution of the verifying observations),
ensemble (voting), and ensemble foreacsting models
for the specified thresholds.
A logistic Brier score is also given for the BMAgamma0 model.
G. W. Brier, Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability, Monthly Weather Review, 78:1–3, 1950.
T. Gneiting and A. E. Raftery, Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction and estimation, Journal of the American Statistical Association 102:359–378, 2007.
C. Fraley, A. E. Raftery, T. Gneiting and J. M. Sloughter,
ensembleBMA
: An R
Package for Probabilistic Forecasting
using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging,
Technical Report No. 516R, Department of Statistics, University of
Washington, 2007 (revised 2010).
ensembleBMA
data(ensBMAtest) ensMemNames <- c("gfs","cmcg","eta","gasp","jma","ngps","tcwb","ukmo") obs <- paste("PCP24","obs", sep = ".") ens <- paste("PCP24", ensMemNames, sep = ".") prcpTestData <- ensembleData( forecasts = ensBMAtest[,ens], dates = ensBMAtest[,"vdate"], observations = ensBMAtest[,obs], station = ensBMAtest[,"station"], forecastHour = 48, initializationTime = "00") ## Not run: # R check prcpTestFit <- ensembleBMAgamma0( prcpTestData, trainingDays = 30) ## End(Not run) hist(prcpTestData$obs) brierScore(prcpTestFit, prcpTestData, thresholds = seq(from = 0, to = .5, by = .1))
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