Description Usage Arguments Value References See Also Examples

Computes Brier Scores for climatology, raw ensemble, and ensemble forecasting models given observation thresholds.

1 | ```
brierScore( fit, ensembleData, thresholds, dates = NULL, ...)
``` |

`fit` |
A model fit to ensemble forecasting data. |

`ensembleData` |
An |

`thresholds` |
One or more threshold values for the Brier score computations. |

`dates` |
The dates for which the Brier score will be computed.
These dates must be consistent with |

`...` |
Included for generic function compatibility. |

A data frame giving the Brier Scores for climatology
(empirical distribution of the verifying observations),
ensemble (voting), and ensemble foreacsting models
for the specified thresholds.

A logistic Brier score is also given for the *BMAgamma0* model.

G. W. Brier,
Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability,
*Monthly Weather Review, 78:1–3, 1950*.

T. Gneiting and A. E. Raftery,
Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction and estimation,
*Journal of the American Statistical Association 102:359–378, 2007.*

C. Fraley, A. E. Raftery, T. Gneiting and J. M. Sloughter,
`ensembleBMA`

: An `R`

Package for Probabilistic Forecasting
using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging,
Technical Report No. 516R, Department of Statistics, University of
Washington, 2007 (revised 2010).

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 | ```
data(ensBMAtest)
ensMemNames <- c("gfs","cmcg","eta","gasp","jma","ngps","tcwb","ukmo")
obs <- paste("PCP24","obs", sep = ".")
ens <- paste("PCP24", ensMemNames, sep = ".")
prcpTestData <- ensembleData( forecasts = ensBMAtest[,ens],
dates = ensBMAtest[,"vdate"],
observations = ensBMAtest[,obs],
station = ensBMAtest[,"station"],
forecastHour = 48,
initializationTime = "00")
## Not run: # R check
prcpTestFit <- ensembleBMAgamma0( prcpTestData, trainingDays = 30)
## End(Not run)
hist(prcpTestData$obs)
brierScore(prcpTestFit, prcpTestData,
thresholds = seq(from = 0, to = .5, by = .1))
``` |

Embedding an R snippet on your website

Add the following code to your website.

For more information on customizing the embed code, read Embedding Snippets.