predict_fbRanks: Predict function for fbRanks Objects

In fbRanks: Association Football (Soccer) Ranking via Poisson Regression

Description

The rank.teams function outputs fbRanks objects. predict(fbRanks), where fbRanks is one's output from a rank.teams call, will predict the result (win, loss, tie) and goals for a set of matches between teams.

Usage

## S3 method for class 'fbRanks'
predict(object, ..., 
       newdata=list(home.team="foo", away.team="bar"),
       max.date="2100-6-1", min.date="1900-5-1", 
       rnd=TRUE, silent=FALSE, show.matches=TRUE, 
       verbose=FALSE, remove.outliers=TRUE, n=100000)

Arguments

object	A fbRanks object.
...	Other arguments for to use for filtering the scores data.frame or newdata data.frame. You can use any column in the scores or teams data frames. Name of the argument should be the column name and values passed in as a vector. See examples.
newdata	A data.frame of data to use for predicting. At the minimum home.team, away.team and any predictors in x (the fbRanks model) are required.
max.date, min.date	Used for filtering the scores data.frame or newdata data.frame.
rnd	whether to round the output of predictions.
silent	whether to print anything
show.matches	whether to print the match predicitons
verbose	whether to print some prediction performances stats.
remove.outliers	whether to show predictions for teams whose estimates violate normality.
n	the number of simulate matches to use when computing the probabilities of win, tie, loss

Value

A prediction for a set of matches based on an estimated model of attack and defense strengths for each team.

Author(s)

Eli Holmes, Seattle, USA. eeholmes(at)u(dot)washington(dot)com

See Also

rank.teams, simulate.fbRanks

Examples

## Not run: 
#This will load two dataframes: B00.scores and B00.teams
data(B00data)

#fit a model using a particular date range for B00 teams
#set the data range to just be the summer games of WA teams
x=rank.teams(scores=B00.scores, teams=B00.teams, 
             min.date="2012-5-1", max.date="2012-9-8", silent=TRUE)

#x is a fbRanks object with the fitted model and ranks, and the scores and teams data.frames
#the scores data.frames has all the data, not just the summer data

#Now we can use the summer data to predict the fall RCL D1 games (top B00 league in WA)
predict(x, venue="RCL D1")

#We can also predict all the games for a particular team
predict(x, name="Seattle United Copa B00")

## End(Not run)

Example output

Predicted Match Results for 1900-05-01 to 2100-06-01
Model based on data from 2012-05-01 to 2012-09-08
---------------------------------------------
2012-09-15 FC Alliance A B00 vs Crossfire Premier A B01, HW 34%, AW 47%, T 20%, pred score 1.9-2.3  actual: HW (6-0)
2012-09-15 Crossfire Premier B B00 vs Seattle United Copa B00, HW 12%, AW 74%, T 14%, pred score 1.2-3.1  actual: T (1-1)
2012-09-16 Crossfire Premier B B00 vs Crossfire Premier A B01, HW 58%, AW 23%, T 19%, pred score 2.4-1.5  actual: HW (3-2)
2012-09-16 WPFC Black B00 vs WA Rush Nike B00, HW 82%, AW 5%, T 13%, pred score 2.6-0.5  actual: HW (3-0)
2012-09-22 Eastside FC Red B00 vs Crossfire Premier B B00, HW 56%, AW 20%, T 24%, pred score 1.7-0.9  actual: HW (4-0)
2012-09-22 Seattle United Copa B00 vs WPFC Black B00, HW 35%, AW 34%, T 31%, pred score 1-1  actual: T (1-1)
2012-09-22 WA Rush Nike B00 vs FC Alliance A B00, HW 38%, AW 44%, T 18%, pred score 2.3-2.5  actual: T (2-2)
2012-09-23 Eastside FC Red B00 vs WPFC Black B00, HW 25%, AW 35%, T 40%, pred score 0.6-0.7  actual: AW (0-1)
2012-09-23 SSC Shadow A B00 vs Crossfire Premier A B01, HW 23%, AW 56%, T 21%, pred score 1.3-2.1  actual: T (2-2)
2012-09-23 Seattle United Copa B00 vs FC Alliance A B00, HW 92%, AW 3%, T 5%, pred score 4.8-1  actual: HW (1-0)
2012-09-26 Crossfire Premier B B00 vs FC Alliance A B00, HW 70%, AW 17%, T 13%, pred score 3.7-1.9  actual: T (0-0)
2012-09-29 WA Rush Nike B00 vs Eastside FC Red B00, HW 8%, AW 75%, T 17%, pred score 0.6-2.2  actual: HW (1-0)
2012-09-29 SSC Shadow A B00 vs WPFC Black B00, HW 4%, AW 86%, T 11%, pred score 0.4-2.8  actual: AW (0-4)
2012-09-29 Seattle United Copa B00 vs Crossfire Premier A B01, HW 83%, AW 6%, T 11%, pred score 3.1-0.7  actual: HW (4-1)
2012-09-30 SSC Shadow A B00 vs WA Rush Nike B00, HW 30%, AW 49%, T 21%, pred score 1.6-2.1  actual: AW (2-3)
2012-10-11 FC Alliance A B00 vs Seattle United Copa B00, HW 3%, AW 93%, T 5%, pred score 1-4.8  actual: AW (0-3)
2012-10-13 WPFC Black B00 vs Eastside FC Red B00, HW 35%, AW 25%, T 40%, pred score 0.7-0.6  actual: AW (0-1)
2012-10-13 Crossfire Premier A B01 vs Crossfire Premier B B00, HW 23%, AW 58%, T 19%, pred score 1.5-2.4  actual: T (3-3)
2012-10-13 SSC Shadow A B00 vs FC Alliance A B00, HW 27%, AW 55%, T 18%, pred score 1.9-2.7  actual: T (2-2)
2012-10-14 SSC Shadow A B00 vs Crossfire Premier B B00, HW 10%, AW 78%, T 12%, pred score 1.3-3.4  actual: T (2-2)
2012-10-14 Crossfire Premier A B01 vs Seattle United Copa B00, HW 6%, AW 83%, T 11%, pred score 0.7-3.1  actual: T (1-1)
2012-10-20 Crossfire Premier B B00 vs WA Rush Nike B00, HW 70%, AW 15%, T 15%, pred score 3.1-1.5  actual: HW (2-0)
2012-10-20 Eastside FC Red B00 vs FC Alliance A B00, HW 77%, AW 8%, T 14%, pred score 2.6-0.7  actual: HW (2-1)
2012-10-20 Crossfire Premier A B01 vs WPFC Black B00, HW 8%, AW 73%, T 19%, pred score 0.5-2  actual: AW (0-3)
2012-10-21 Seattle United Copa B00 vs SSC Shadow A B00, HW 94%, AW 2%, T 4%, pred score 4.4-0.6  actual: HW (3-0)
2012-10-21 Eastside FC Red B00 vs WA Rush Nike B00, HW 75%, AW 8%, T 17%, pred score 2.2-0.6  actual: T (1-1)
2012-10-24 FC Alliance A B00 vs WA Rush Nike B00, HW 44%, AW 37%, T 19%, pred score 2.5-2.3  actual: HW (2-1)
2012-10-27 Crossfire Premier B B00 vs Eastside FC Red B00, HW 20%, AW 56%, T 24%, pred score 0.9-1.7  actual: AW (0-3)
2012-10-27 WPFC Black B00 vs Crossfire Premier A B01, HW 73%, AW 8%, T 19%, pred score 2-0.5  actual: HW (2-1)
2012-10-28 SSC Shadow A B00 vs Seattle United Copa B00, HW 2%, AW 94%, T 4%, pred score 0.6-4.4  actual: AW (2-4)
2012-10-28 Eastside FC Red B00 vs Crossfire Premier A B01, HW 65%, AW 12%, T 23%, pred score 1.7-0.5  actual: HW (2-0)
2012-11-03 Crossfire Premier A B01 vs FC Alliance A B00, HW 46%, AW 34%, T 20%, pred score 2.3-1.9  actual: AW (1-3)
2012-11-03 WA Rush Nike B00 vs Crossfire Premier B B00, HW 16%, AW 70%, T 15%, pred score 1.5-3.1  actual: AW (2-3)
2012-11-03 Eastside FC Red B00 vs SSC Shadow A B00, HW 80%, AW 5%, T 14%, pred score 2.4-0.5  actual: HW (3-2)
2012-11-03 WPFC Black B00 vs Seattle United Copa B00, HW 34%, AW 35%, T 31%, pred score 1-1  actual: T (0-0)
2012-11-04 WPFC Black B00 vs Crossfire Premier B B00, HW 65%, AW 14%, T 21%, pred score 2-0.8  actual: AW (0-2)
2012-11-04 Crossfire Premier A B01 vs SSC Shadow A B00, HW 56%, AW 23%, T 21%, pred score 2.1-1.3  actual: AW (1-4)
2012-11-10 Seattle United Copa B00 vs Eastside FC Red B00, HW 42%, AW 27%, T 31%, pred score 1.1-0.8  actual: AW (1-3)
2012-11-10 Crossfire Premier A B01 vs WA Rush Nike B00, HW 48%, AW 30%, T 22%, pred score 1.9-1.5  actual: T (2-2)
2012-11-10 FC Alliance A B00 vs WPFC Black B00, HW 5%, AW 85%, T 10%, pred score 0.6-3  actual: AW (0-1)
2012-11-10 Crossfire Premier B B00 vs SSC Shadow A B00, HW 78%, AW 10%, T 12%, pred score 3.4-1.3  actual: AW (1-3)
2012-11-11 FC Alliance A B00 vs SSC Shadow A B00, HW 55%, AW 27%, T 18%, pred score 2.7-1.9  actual: HW (2-0)
2012-11-11 Crossfire Premier A B01 vs Eastside FC Red B00, HW 11%, AW 65%, T 23%, pred score 0.5-1.7  actual: AW (1-7)
2012-11-11 Seattle United Copa B00 vs WA Rush Nike B00, HW 91%, AW 3%, T 6%, pred score 4-0.8  actual: HW (3-0)
2012-11-17 WA Rush Nike B00 vs Seattle United Copa B00, HW 3%, AW 91%, T 6%, pred score 0.8-4  actual: T (1-1)
2012-11-17 WPFC Black B00 vs SSC Shadow A B00, HW 86%, AW 4%, T 11%, pred score 2.8-0.4  actual: HW (5-0)
2012-11-18 WA Rush Nike B00 vs SSC Shadow A B00, HW 49%, AW 30%, T 21%, pred score 2.1-1.6  actual: T (1-1)
2012-12-01 FC Alliance A B00 vs Eastside FC Red B00, HW 8%, AW 78%, T 14%, pred score 0.7-2.6  actual: HW (1-0)
2012-12-01 Seattle United Copa B00 vs Crossfire Premier B B00, HW 74%, AW 12%, T 14%, pred score 3.1-1.2  actual: HW (6-0)
2012-12-02 SSC Shadow A B00 vs Eastside FC Red B00, HW 6%, AW 80%, T 14%, pred score 0.5-2.4  actual: HW (2-1)
2012-12-05 FC Alliance A B00 vs Crossfire Premier B B00, HW 16%, AW 70%, T 13%, pred score 1.9-3.7  actual: HW (3-0)
2012-12-08 Crossfire Premier B B00 vs WPFC Black B00, HW 15%, AW 65%, T 21%, pred score 0.8-2  actual: AW (0-3)
2012-12-08 WA Rush Nike B00 vs Crossfire Premier A B01, HW 31%, AW 48%, T 22%, pred score 1.5-1.9  actual: T (1-1)
2012-12-08 Eastside FC Red B00 vs Seattle United Copa B00, HW 27%, AW 42%, T 31%, pred score 0.8-1.1  actual: HW (2-0)
2012-12-09 WPFC Black B00 vs FC Alliance A B00, HW 85%, AW 5%, T 10%, pred score 3-0.6  actual: HW (2-0)
2012-12-15 WA Rush Nike B00 vs WPFC Black B00, HW 5%, AW 82%, T 13%, pred score 0.5-2.6  actual: AW (1-2)
Predicted Match Results for 1900-05-01 to 2100-06-01
Model based on data from 2012-05-01 to 2012-09-08
---------------------------------------------
2012-06-08 Seattle United Copa B00 vs Crossfire Premier A B00, HW 9%, AW 76%, T 15%, pred score 0.8-2.5  actual: AW (0-3)
2012-06-09 WPFC White B00 vs Seattle United Copa B00, HW 0%, AW 98%, T 2%, pred score 0.4-5.2  actual: AW (0-6)
2012-06-09 Seattle United Copa B00 vs WA Rush Nike B00, HW 91%, AW 3%, T 6%, pred score 4-0.8  actual: HW (4-3)
2012-06-10 WPFC Black B00 vs Seattle United Copa B00, HW 34%, AW 35%, T 31%, pred score 1-1  actual: AW (1-2)
2012-06-10 Seattle United Copa B00 vs Crossfire Premier A B00, HW 9%, AW 76%, T 15%, pred score 0.8-2.5  actual: AW (0-1)
2012-08-05 Seattle United Tango B00 vs Seattle United Copa B00, HW 3%, AW 92%, T 5%, pred score 0.7-4.2  actual: AW (0-4)
2012-09-15 Crossfire Premier B B00 vs Seattle United Copa B00, HW 12%, AW 75%, T 14%, pred score 1.2-3.1  actual: T (1-1)
2012-09-22 Seattle United Copa B00 vs WPFC Black B00, HW 35%, AW 34%, T 31%, pred score 1-1  actual: T (1-1)
2012-09-23 Seattle United Copa B00 vs FC Alliance A B00, HW 93%, AW 3%, T 5%, pred score 4.8-1  actual: HW (1-0)
2012-09-29 Seattle United Copa B00 vs Crossfire Premier A B01, HW 83%, AW 6%, T 11%, pred score 3.1-0.7  actual: HW (4-1)
2012-10-11 FC Alliance A B00 vs Seattle United Copa B00, HW 3%, AW 92%, T 5%, pred score 1-4.8  actual: AW (0-3)
2012-10-14 Crossfire Premier A B01 vs Seattle United Copa B00, HW 6%, AW 83%, T 11%, pred score 0.7-3.1  actual: T (1-1)
2012-10-21 Seattle United Copa B00 vs SSC Shadow A B00, HW 94%, AW 2%, T 4%, pred score 4.4-0.6  actual: HW (3-0)
2012-10-28 SSC Shadow A B00 vs Seattle United Copa B00, HW 2%, AW 94%, T 4%, pred score 0.6-4.4  actual: AW (2-4)
2012-11-03 WPFC Black B00 vs Seattle United Copa B00, HW 34%, AW 35%, T 31%, pred score 1-1  actual: T (0-0)
2012-11-10 Seattle United Copa B00 vs Eastside FC Red B00, HW 42%, AW 27%, T 31%, pred score 1.1-0.8  actual: AW (1-3)
2012-11-11 Seattle United Copa B00 vs WA Rush Nike B00, HW 91%, AW 3%, T 6%, pred score 4-0.8  actual: HW (3-0)
2012-11-17 WA Rush Nike B00 vs Seattle United Copa B00, HW 3%, AW 91%, T 6%, pred score 0.8-4  actual: T (1-1)
2012-12-01 Seattle United Copa B00 vs Crossfire Premier B B00, HW 75%, AW 12%, T 14%, pred score 3.1-1.2  actual: HW (6-0)
2012-12-08 Eastside FC Red B00 vs Seattle United Copa B00, HW 27%, AW 42%, T 30%, pred score 0.8-1.1  actual: HW (2-0)

fbRanks documentation built on May 1, 2019, 8:01 p.m.