Data on speculative currency attacks and devaluation decisions for 90 countries from 1985 to 1998.
The dataset is taken from Leblang (2003). The unit of observation is the country-month, and the variables are:
Whether the country faced no speculative attack, defended its currency against an attack, or devalued in response to an attack in the given month
Indicator for being in the three months prior to an election
Indicator for being in the three months following an election
Indicator for a right-wing party being in power
Indicator for unified government: in presidential systems, the same party controlling the presidency and the lower house of the legislature; in parliamentary systems, one party/coalition having a majority of seats
Logged ratio of currency reserves to base money in the previous month
Domestic real interest rate in the previous month
Logged ratio of exports to GDP in the previous month
Indicator for capital controls in the previous year
Overvaluation of the real exchange rate
Domestic credit growth in the previous month
External debt service (as percentage of exports) paid in previous month
U.S. domestic interest rates in the previous month
Number of other countries experiencing speculative attacks in the same month
Number of prior speculative attacks experienced by the country
Month of observation
Year of observation
All of the non-binary variables other than
year are standardized to have mean 0 and unit variance.
We are grateful to David Leblang for allowing us to redistribute his data. The original replication file is available in Stata format at https://sites.google.com/site/davidaleblang/data-1 (as of 2015-02-22).
David Leblang. 2003. "To Defend or Devalue: The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy." International Studies Quarterly 47: 533–559.
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## Replicate analysis in Leblang (2003) data("leblang2003") ## NOTE: Convergence tolerance is set to 1e-4 to reduce testing runtime on ## CRAN; do not reduce tolerance in real applications! m1 <- egame12(outcome ~ capcont + lreserves + overval + creditgrow + USinterest + service + contagion + prioratt - 1 | 1 | 1 | unifgov + lexports + preelec + postelec + rightgov + realinterest + capcont + lreserves, data = leblang2003, link = "probit", type = "private", reltol = 1e-4) summary(m1)
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