leblang2003: Currency attacks
In games: Statistical Estimation of Game-Theoretic Models

Description Usage Details References See Also Examples

Data on speculative currency attacks and devaluation decisions for 90 countries from 1985 to 1998.

1	data(leblang2003)

The dataset is taken from Leblang (2003). The unit of observation is the country-month, and the variables are:

outcome: Whether the country faced no speculative attack, defended its currency against an attack, or devalued in response to an attack in the given month
preelec: Indicator for being in the three months prior to an election
postelec: Indicator for being in the three months following an election
rightgov: Indicator for a right-wing party being in power
unifgov: Indicator for unified government: in presidential systems, the same party controlling the presidency and the lower house of the legislature; in parliamentary systems, one party/coalition having a majority of seats
lreserves: Logged ratio of currency reserves to base money in the previous month
realinterest: Domestic real interest rate in the previous month
lexports: Logged ratio of exports to GDP in the previous month
capcont: Indicator for capital controls in the previous year
overval: Overvaluation of the real exchange rate
creditgrow: Domestic credit growth in the previous month
service: External debt service (as percentage of exports) paid in previous month
USinterest: U.S. domestic interest rates in the previous month
contagion: Number of other countries experiencing speculative attacks in the same month
prioratt: Number of prior speculative attacks experienced by the country
nation: Country name
month: Month of observation
year: Year of observation

All of the non-binary variables other than nation, month, and year are standardized to have mean 0 and unit variance.

We are grateful to David Leblang for allowing us to redistribute his data. The original replication file is available in Stata format at https://sites.google.com/site/davidaleblang/data-1 (as of 2015-02-22).

David Leblang. 2003. "To Defend or Devalue: The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy." International Studies Quarterly 47: 533–559.

egame12

## Replicate analysis in Leblang (2003)
data("leblang2003")

## NOTE: Convergence tolerance is set to 1e-4 to reduce testing runtime on
## CRAN; do not reduce tolerance in real applications!
m1 <- egame12(outcome ~
              capcont + lreserves + overval + creditgrow + USinterest + service
              + contagion + prioratt - 1 |
              1 |
              1 |
              unifgov + lexports + preelec + postelec + rightgov + realinterest
              + capcont + lreserves,
              data = leblang2003,
              link = "probit",
              type = "private",
              reltol = 1e-4)

summary(m1)