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.nbinomfit <- function(eta) {
shiftthresh=quantile(eta,0.5)
maxshift = match(TRUE,eta>shiftthresh)
Mtmp = tail(which(eta>shiftthresh),1)
fun1 <- function(shift) {
m <- weighted.mean((maxshift:Mtmp)-shift,eta[maxshift:Mtmp])
v <- as.numeric(cov.wt(data.frame((maxshift:Mtmp)-shift),wt=eta[maxshift:Mtmp])$cov)
if(!is.finite(v)) v = 1e+10
size <- if (v > m) m^2/(v - m) else 100
size = trunc(size)
if(size == 0) size =1
densfun <- function(par) - sum(dnbinom((maxshift:Mtmp)-shift,size=par[1],mu=par[2],log=TRUE)*eta[maxshift:Mtmp])
out<- suppressWarnings(- nlm(densfun,c(size,m))$minimum)
}
shift = which.max(sapply(1:maxshift,fun1))
m <- weighted.mean((maxshift:Mtmp)-shift,eta[maxshift:Mtmp])
v <- as.numeric(cov.wt(data.frame((maxshift:Mtmp)-shift),wt=eta[maxshift:Mtmp])$cov)
if(!is.finite(v)) v = 1e+10
size <- if (v > m) m^2/(v - m) else 100
size = trunc(size)
if(size == 0) size =1
size <- if (v > m) m^2/(v - m) else 100
densfun <- function(par) -sum(dnbinom((maxshift:Mtmp)-shift,size=par[1],mu=par[2],log=TRUE)*eta[maxshift:Mtmp])
suppressWarnings(tmp <- nlm(densfun,c(size,m))$estimate)
c(shift = shift,size=max(1,trunc(tmp[1])),mu=tmp[2],prob=max(1,trunc(tmp[1]))/(sum(tmp)))
}
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