Thall, Simon and Estey's criterion function for determining the trial decision boundaries for efficacy (futility) and safety (toxicity).

1 | ```
MultPostP(x, n, a.vec, p0)
``` |

`x` |
the value of observed data. It can be |

`n` |
the number of patients treated by the experimental drug at a certain stage of the trial. |

`a.vec` |
the hyperparameter vector of the Dirichlet prior for the experimental drug. |

`p0` |
the prespecified reseponse rate for efficacy, futility or toxicity. |

`prob` |
the posterior probability: |

Berry, S. M., Carlin, B. P., Lee, J. J., & Muller, P. (2010).
*Bayesian adaptive methods for clinical trials.*
CRC press.

Thall, Peter F., Richard M. Simon, and Elihu H. Estey. (1995).
*Bayesian sequential monitoring designs for single-arm clinical trials with multiple outcomes.*
*Statistics in medicine* **14.4**: 357-379.

Yin, G. (2013).
*Clinical Trial Design: Bayesian and Frequentist Adaptive Methods.*
New York: Wiley.

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