A suite of functions for visualising ternary probabilistic forecasts.
Colours can be assigned to ternary probabilistic forecasts using
These colours can be used to produce forecast maps as in the example function
A set of ternary forecasts
p can be compared with subsequent ternary observations
o using the function
plot.tverify then displays this information in a Ternary Reliability Diagram. Calibration is performed using
Maintainer: Tim Jupp <[email protected]>
Jupp TE, Lowe R, Stephenson DB, Coelho CAS (2012) On the visualization, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, volume 370, pages 1100-1120.
Some concepts adapted from those in package vcd.
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data(foot) # see the distribution of forecasts tplot(foot$p,main="Bookmaker forecasts of \n football matches", dimnames=c("Home Win","Draw","Away Win")) # see how well forecasts compare with results # create object of class tverify foot.verify <- tverify(p=foot$p,o=foot$o) # plot ternary reliability diagram dev.new() plot(foot.verify, thresh=3) # get a (linear) calibration of these data # create an object of class tverify foot.calib <- tgetcal(foot.verify) # plot ternary reliability diagram of calibrated dev.new() plot(foot.calib, thresh=3) data(rain) tmap(rain,iyr=17,palette=TRUE,circles=FALSE,fac=10)
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