tverify: Verification of ternary forecasts / observations

In ternvis: Visualisation, Verification and Calibration of Ternary Probabilistic Forecasts

Description

Function to create verification information associated with a set of forecasts p and associated observations o.

Usage

tverify(p, o, q, forceq, ncirc, L)

## Default S3 method:
tverify(p = cbind(1, 1, 1)/3, o = cbind(0, 0, 1), 
        q = cbind(1, 1, 1)/3, forceq = FALSE, 
        ncirc = 11, L = diag(c(1, 1, 1))/sqrt(2))
## S3 method for class 'tverify'
plot(x, thresh = 0, lsharp = TRUE, 
     L = diag(c(1, 1, 1))/sqrt(2),...)

Arguments

p	An n-by-3 matrix of ternary forecasts.
o	An n-by-3 matrix of ternary observations.
q	A 1-by-3 matrix containing the climatology.
forceq	A logical. If forceq = TRUE then the input climatology q is used. If forceq = FALSE a climatology is calculated from o.
ncirc	Controls discretisation of barycentric coordinates. (The number of hexagons along each side of the triangle.)
x	An object of the tverify class (as produced by tverify or tgetcal.
thresh	A ‘threshold’ number of forecasts in a ‘bin’, below which the forecast will not be plotted. (Prevents diagram being cluttered by very rare forecasts).
lsharp	Logical controlling whether a ternary sharpness diagram is to be included.
L	A quadratic scoring matrix. The matrix for the Brier score is the default. Full functionality for other scores not yet implemented.
...	Not used.

Value

An object of class tverify, which is a list containing the following components:

pbin	array of bins in barycentric coordinates.
Nobs	number of forecasts in each bin.
obar	mean onservation associated with each forecast bin.
score	score associated with each forecast bin.
unc	uncertainty associated with each forecast bin.
rel	reliability associated with each forecast bin.
res	resolution associated with each forecast bin.
scorebar	overall score.
uncbar	overall uncertainty.
relbar	overall reliability.
resbar	overall resolution.
ncirc	number of bins along each side of triangle.
p	input forecast data.
o	input observation data.
assigned	index of bin assigned to each forecast.
L	scoring matrix used.
hexc	array of hexagon centres.
q	climatology.
pk	forecasts set to centre of each bin (tverify) or recalibrated (tgetcal)
ok	mean observations corresponding to forecasts pk
pars	parameters in calibration (tgetcal only).
opt	details of calibration (tgetcal only ).
f	calibration function (tgetcal only, for use with tcalibrate).

Author(s)

Tim Jupp

References

Jupp TE, Lowe R, Stephenson DB, Coelho CAS (2012) On the visualization, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, volume 370, pages 1100-1120.

http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/370/1962/1100.full

http://arxiv.org/abs/1103.1303

Examples

data(foot)                            # get football betting data
tv   <- tverify(p=foot$p,o=foot$o)    # get verification info
plot(tv)                              # plot verification info

ternvis documentation built on July 5, 2019, 5:03 p.m.