Description Usage Arguments Author(s) References See Also Examples
Function to obtain a best-fitting calibration to a set of ternary forecasts p and corresponding observations o.
1 |
tv |
An object of the tverify class (as produced by |
quad |
A logical describing which functional form to use for calibration. Linear calibration ( |
Tim Jupp
Jupp TE, Lowe R, Stephenson DB, Coelho CAS (2012) On the visualization, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, volume 370, pages 1100-1120.
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/370/1962/1100.full
http://arxiv.org/abs/1103.1303
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 | data(foot)
# see the distribution of forecasts
tplot(foot$p,main="Bookmaker forecasts of \n football matches",
dimnames=c("Home Win","Draw","Away Win"))
# see how well forecasts compare with results
# create object of class tverify
foot.verify <- tverify(p=foot$p,o=foot$o)
# plot ternary reliability diagram
dev.new()
plot(foot.verify, thresh=3)
# get a (linear) calibration of these data
# create an object of class tverify
foot.calib <- tgetcal(foot.verify)
# plot ternary reliability diagram of calibrated forecasts
dev.new()
plot(foot.calib, thresh=3)
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