Function to obtain a best-fitting calibration to a set of ternary forecasts p and corresponding observations o.
An object of the tverify class (as produced by
A logical describing which functional form to use for calibration. Linear calibration (
Jupp TE, Lowe R, Stephenson DB, Coelho CAS (2012) On the visualization, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, volume 370, pages 1100-1120.
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data(foot) # see the distribution of forecasts tplot(foot$p,main="Bookmaker forecasts of \n football matches", dimnames=c("Home Win","Draw","Away Win")) # see how well forecasts compare with results # create object of class tverify foot.verify <- tverify(p=foot$p,o=foot$o) # plot ternary reliability diagram dev.new() plot(foot.verify, thresh=3) # get a (linear) calibration of these data # create an object of class tverify foot.calib <- tgetcal(foot.verify) # plot ternary reliability diagram of calibrated forecasts dev.new() plot(foot.calib, thresh=3)
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