Description Usage Arguments Details Value Examples
The Epidemic Prognosis Incorporating Disease and Environmental Monitoring for
Integrated Assessment (EPIDEMIA) Forecasting System is a set of tools coded in
free, open-access software, that integrate surveillance and environmental data
to model and create short-term forecasts for environmentally-mediated
diseases. This function, epidemiar::run_epidemia()
is the central
function to model and forecast a wide range of environmentally-mediated
diseases.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 |
epi_data |
Epidemiological data with case numbers per week, with date field "obs_date". |
env_data |
Daily environmental data for the same groupfields and date
range as the epidemiological data. It may contain extra data (other
districts or date ranges). The data must be in long format (one row for each
date and environmental variable combination), and must start at absolutel
minimum |
env_ref_data |
Historical averages by week of year for environmental variables. Used in extended environmental data into the future for long forecast time, to calculate anomalies in early detection period, and to display on timeseries in reports. |
env_info |
Lookup table for environmental data - reference creation method (e.g. sum or mean), report labels, etc. |
casefield |
The column name of the field that contains disease case counts (unquoted field name). |
groupfield |
The column name of the field for district or geographic area unit division names of epidemiological AND environmental data (unquoted field name). If there are no groupings (all one area), user should give a field that contains the same value throughout. |
populationfield |
Column name of the optional population field to give
population numbers over time (unquoted field name). Used to calculated
incidence if |
obsfield |
Field name of the environmental data variables (unquoted field name). |
valuefield |
Field name of the value of the environmental data variable observations (unquoted field name). |
fc_model_family |
The |
report_settings |
This is a named list of all the report, forecasting, event detection and other settings. All of these have defaults, but they are not likely the defaults needed for your system, so each of these should be reviewed:
|
For more a longer description of the package, run the following command to see
the overview vignette: vignette("overview-epidemiar", package =
"epidemiar")
For more details run the following command to see the vignette on input data
and modeling parameters: vignette("data-modeling", package =
"epidemiar")
Returns a suite of summary and report data.
1. summary_data
: Early detection and early warning alerts levels for
each woreda. Early detection alerts (ed_alert_count) are alerts that are
triggered during the early detection period, which is defined as the 4 most
recent weeks of known epidemiology data. Similarly, early warning alerts
(ew_alert_count) are alerts in the future forecast estimates. “High” level
indicates two or more weeks in this period had incidences greater than the
alert threshold, “Medium” means that one week was in alert status, and “Low”
means no weeks had alerts (ed_sum_level and ew_level, respectively).
2. epi_summary
: Mean disease incidence per geographic group during
the early detection period.
3. modeling_results_data
:These are multiple timeseries values for
observed, forecast, and alert thresholds of disease incidence, over the
report period, for each geographic unit. These data can be used in creating
the individual geographic unit control charts.
4. environ_timeseries
: These are multiple timeseries for the
environmental variables during the report period for each geographic unit.
5. environ_anomalies
: These data are the recent (during the early
detection period) differences (anomalies) of the environmental variable
values from the climatology/reference mean.
6. params_meta
: This lists dates, settings, and parameters that
run_epidemiar()
was called with.
7. regression_object
: This is the regression object from the general
additive model (GAM, parallelized with BAM) regression. This is only for
statistical investigation of the model, and is usually not saved (very large
object).
For more details see the vignette on the output data:
vignette("output-report-data", package = "epidemiar")
However, if model_run = TRUE
, the function returns a list of two
objects. The first, model_obj
is the regression object from whichever
model is being run. There is also model_info
which has details on the
parameters used to create the model, similar to params_meta
in a full
run.
1 2 | "See model_forecast_script in epidemiar-demo for full example:
https://github.com/EcoGRAPH/epidemiar-demo"
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