inst/markdown/modal_pm.md

In conservation-decisions/smsPOMDP: POMDP problem solver: When to stop managing or surveying cryptic threatened species ?

This is usually a yearly probability of persistence.

Realistically, what are the chances of a local population of species y go functionally extinct over x years managed?

An expert may think - or an analysis may show - there is a 5% chance that the local population will go functionally extinct over 20 years under management: $p(y=extinct, period= 20 years)= 0.05$

This extinction probability can then be expressed as a persistence probability over 20 years: $p(y=persist, period= 20 years)=0.95$

Which can then be expressed as a yearly probability: $p(y=persist, period= 1 year)= (0.95)^{\frac{1}{20}} = 0.99743$

conservation-decisions/smsPOMDP documentation built on Oct. 27, 2020, 10:44 p.m.