predict.LeeCarter: Forecast age-specific death rates using the Lee-Carter model.

In mpascariu/MortalityForecast: Standard Tools to Compare and Evaluate Various Mortality Forecasting Methods

Description

Forecast age-specific death rates using the Lee-Carter model.

Usage

## S3 method for class 'LeeCarter'
predict(object, h, order = c(0, 1, 0),
  include.drift = TRUE, level = c(80, 95), jumpchoice = c("actual",
  "fit"), method = "ML", verbose = TRUE, ...)

Arguments

object	An object of class LeeCarter.
h	Number of years to be forecast in the future.
order	A specification of the non-seasonal part of the ARIMA model: the three components (p, d, q) are the AR order, the degree of differencing, and the MA order. If order = NULL, the ARIMA order will be estimated automatically using the KPPS algorithm.
include.drift	Logical. Should the ARIMA model include a linear drift term? If include.drift = NULL, the model will be estimated automatically.
level	Significance level of the confidence interval.
jumpchoice	Method used for computation of jumpchoice. Possibilities: "actual" (use actual rates from final year) and "fit" (use fitted rates).
method	ARIMA fitting method: maximum likelihood or minimize conditional sum-of-squares. Options to use: conditional-sum-of-squares ("CSS-ML"), maximum likelihood ("ML") and "CSS".
verbose	A logical value. Set verbose = FALSE to silent the process that take place inside the function and avoid progress messages.
...	Additional arguments to be passed to Arima

Details

\insertNoCite

lee1992MortalityForecast

Value

The output is a list with the components:

call	An unevaluated function call, that is, an unevaluated expression which consists of the named function applied to the given arguments;
info	Short details about the model;
kt	The extrapolated values of the kt parameters;
kt.arima	An object of class ARIMA that contains all the components of the fitted time series model used in kt prediction;
predicted.values	A list containing the predicted values given by the estimated model over the forecast horizon h;
conf.intervals	Confidence intervals for the predicted values;
x	Vector of ages used in prediction;
y	Vector of years used in prediction.

Author(s)

Marius D. Pascariu and Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher

References

\insertAllCited

See Also

model.LeeCarter

Examples

# For examples go to ?model.LeeCarter

mpascariu/MortalityForecast documentation built on Sept. 28, 2020, 2:40 p.m.