calc_sd_check: Compute check of whether mean of forecast medians in a...

View source: R/model_eligibility.R

calc_sd_checkR Documentation

Compute check of whether mean of forecast medians in a "lookahead" window is more than num_sd sample standard deviations below the sample mean of observations in a "lookback" window. The standard deviations and means of observations may be calculated over different windows. Tables listing the included excluded location-model pairs are saved in sd_check_table_path, and plots illustrating the exclusion criteria are saved in sd_check_plot_path.

Description

Compute check of whether mean of forecast medians in a "lookahead" window is more than num_sd sample standard deviations below the sample mean of observations in a "lookback" window. The standard deviations and means of observations may be calculated over different windows. Tables listing the included excluded location-model pairs are saved in sd_check_table_path, and plots illustrating the exclusion criteria are saved in sd_check_plot_path.

Usage

calc_sd_check(
  qfm,
  observed_by_location_target_end_date,
  sd_check_table_path = NULL,
  sd_check_plot_path = NULL,
  lookback_method = c("by observations", "dy dates"),
  lookback_window = 1:14,
  lookback_window_for_mean = 1:7,
  lookback_window_for_sd = 1:14,
  lookahead_window = 1:7,
  exclude_below = TRUE,
  exclude_above = TRUE,
  num_sd = 4,
  show_stats = FALSE
)

Arguments

qfm

matrix of model forecasts of class QuantileForecastMatrix

observed_by_location_target_end_date

data frame of observed values

sd_check_table_path

where to save csv files listing exclusions

sd_check_plot_path

where to save plots

lookback_method

if set to "by observations", mean and sd are calculated for specified windows of observations; of set to "by dates", mean and sd are calculated for observations within specified date windows

lookback_window

vector of (not necessarilly consecutive) observation or date indices starting with index 1 for the most recent available observation and counting (by observation or calendar date) backwards; should contain the union of indices for mean and sd windows (with an error thrown otherwise) and gives the window of observations that the line plot will cover

lookback_window_for_mean

vector of indices giving the the mean window

lookback_window_for_sd

vector of indices giving the the sd window

lookahead_window

vector of indices giving the window over which forecast means are calculated

num_sd

number of standard deviations to use for cutoff

Value

data frame with a row for each combination of location and model and a logical column called 'eligibility' with entry "more than four SDs below 2-week mean of hospitalization point forecasts" if check fails


reichlab/covidEnsembles documentation built on Jan. 31, 2024, 7:21 p.m.