probablityOfPayment: A generic function to plot the probability of a payment.

In BALD: Robust Loss Development Using MCMC

Description

A generic function to plot the probability of a payment.

Arguments

object	The object from which to plot the probability of a payment.
plot	A logical value. If TRUE, then the plot is generated and the statistics are returned; otherwise only the statistics are returned.

Details

Because the model is Bayesian, each estimated payment comes as a distribution. The median of this distribution is used as a point estimate when plotting and/or returning values. Note: Negative payments are treated as missing and are not accounted for. See vignette('BALD').

Value

Mainly called for the side effect of plotting. Also returns a matrix containing the (median) probably of payment. Returned invisibly.

See Also

accountForZeroPayments

Examples

rm(list=ls())
library(BALD)
data(CumulativeAutoBodilyInjuryTriangle)
CumulativeAutoBodilyInjuryTriangle <- as.matrix(CumulativeAutoBodilyInjuryTriangle)
sample.col <- (dim(CumulativeAutoBodilyInjuryTriangle)[2] - 6:0)
print(decumulate(CumulativeAutoBodilyInjuryTriangle)[1:7, sample.col])
data(HPCE)
HPCE <- as.matrix(HPCE)[,1]
HPCE.rate <- HPCE[-1] / HPCE[-length(HPCE)] - 1
print(HPCE.rate[(-10):0 + length(HPCE.rate)])
HPCE.years <- as.integer(names(HPCE.rate))
max.exp.year <- max(as.integer(
dimnames(CumulativeAutoBodilyInjuryTriangle)[[1]]))
years.to.keep <- HPCE.years <=  max.exp.year + 3
HPCE.rate <- HPCE.rate[years.to.keep]
break.model.input <- makeBreakAnnualInput(
cumulative.payments = CumulativeAutoBodilyInjuryTriangle,
stoch.inflation.weight = 1,
non.stoch.inflation.weight = 0,
stoch.inflation.rate = HPCE.rate,
first.year.in.new.regime = c(1986, 1987),
prior.for.first.year.in.new.regime=c(2,1),
exp.year.type = 'ay',
extra.dev.years = 5,
use.skew.t = TRUE,
bound.for.skewness.parameter=5)
## Not run: 
break.model.output <- runLossDevModel(
break.model.input,
burnIn=30.0E+3,
sampleSize=30.0E+3,
thin=10)
break.model.output.w.zeros <- accountForZeroPayments(break.model.output)
probablityOfPayment(break.model.output.w.zeros)

## End(Not run)

BALD documentation built on May 2, 2019, 6:51 a.m.