Nothing
# ---- STANDARD ARIMA ----
context("TEST arima_reg: Arima")
# SETUP ----
# Data
m750 <- m4_monthly %>% filter(id == "M750")
# Split Data 80/20
splits <- initial_time_split(m750, prop = 0.8)
# Model Spec
model_spec <- arima_reg(
seasonal_period = 12,
non_seasonal_ar = 3,
non_seasonal_differences = 1,
non_seasonal_ma = 3,
seasonal_ar = 1,
seasonal_differences = 0,
seasonal_ma = 1
) %>%
set_engine("arima")
# PARSNIP ----
# * NO XREGS ----
# TESTS
test_that("arima_reg: Arima, (No xregs), Test Model Fit Object", {
testthat::skip_on_cran()
#
# Fit Spec
model_fit <- model_spec %>%
fit(log(value) ~ date, data = training(splits))
# Predictions
predictions_tbl <- model_fit %>%
modeltime_calibrate(testing(splits)) %>%
modeltime_forecast(new_data = testing(splits))
testthat::expect_s3_class(model_fit$fit, "Arima_fit_impl")
# $fit
testthat::expect_s3_class(model_fit$fit$models$model_1, "Arima")
testthat::expect_s3_class(model_fit$fit$data, "tbl_df")
testthat::expect_equal(names(model_fit$fit$data)[1], "date")
testthat::expect_true(is.null(model_fit$fit$extras$xreg_recipe))
# $preproc
testthat::expect_equal(model_fit$preproc$y_var, "value")
# arima_reg: Arima, (No xregs), Test Predictions
# Structure
testthat::expect_identical(nrow(testing(splits)), nrow(predictions_tbl))
testthat::expect_identical(testing(splits)$date, predictions_tbl$.index)
# Out-of-Sample Accuracy Tests
resid <- testing(splits)$value - exp(predictions_tbl$.value)
# - Max Error less than 1500
testthat::expect_lte(max(abs(resid)), 1500)
# - MAE less than 700
testthat::expect_lte(mean(abs(resid)), 700)
})
# * XREGS ----
# TESTS
test_that("arima_reg: Arima, (XREGS), Test Model Fit Object", {
testthat::skip_on_cran()
#
# Fit Spec
model_fit <- model_spec %>%
fit(log(value) ~ date + month(date, label = TRUE), data = training(splits))
# Predictions
predictions_tbl <- model_fit %>%
modeltime_calibrate(testing(splits)) %>%
modeltime_forecast(new_data = testing(splits))
testthat::expect_s3_class(model_fit$fit, "Arima_fit_impl")
# $fit
testthat::expect_s3_class(model_fit$fit$models$model_1, "Arima")
testthat::expect_s3_class(model_fit$fit$data, "tbl_df")
testthat::expect_equal(names(model_fit$fit$data)[1], "date")
testthat::expect_true(!is.null(model_fit$fit$extras$xreg_recipe))
# $preproc
testthat::expect_equal(model_fit$preproc$y_var, "value")
# arima_reg: Arima (XREGS), Test Predictions
# Structure
testthat::expect_identical(nrow(testing(splits)), nrow(predictions_tbl))
testthat::expect_identical(testing(splits)$date, predictions_tbl$.index)
# Out-of-Sample Accuracy Tests
resid <- testing(splits)$value - exp(predictions_tbl$.value)
# - Max Error less than 1500
testthat::expect_lte(max(abs(resid)), 1200)
# - MAE less than 700
testthat::expect_lte(mean(abs(resid)), 500)
})
# ---- WORKFLOWS ----
# TESTS
test_that("arima_reg: Arima (workflow), Test Model Fit Object", {
testthat::skip_on_cran()
# Model Spec
model_spec <- arima_reg(
seasonal_period = 12,
non_seasonal_ar = 3,
non_seasonal_differences = 1,
non_seasonal_ma = 3,
seasonal_ar = 1,
seasonal_differences = 0,
seasonal_ma = 1
) %>%
set_engine("arima")
# Recipe spec
recipe_spec <- recipe(value ~ date, data = training(splits)) %>%
step_log(value, skip = FALSE)
# Workflow
wflw <- workflow() %>%
add_recipe(recipe_spec) %>%
add_model(model_spec)
wflw_fit <- wflw %>%
fit(training(splits))
# Forecast
predictions_tbl <- wflw_fit %>%
modeltime_calibrate(testing(splits)) %>%
modeltime_forecast(new_data = testing(splits), actual_data = training(splits)) %>%
mutate_at(vars(.value), exp)
testthat::expect_s3_class(wflw_fit$fit$fit$fit, "Arima_fit_impl")
# $fit
testthat::expect_s3_class(wflw_fit$fit$fit$fit$models$model_1, "Arima")
testthat::expect_s3_class(wflw_fit$fit$fit$fit$data, "tbl_df")
testthat::expect_equal(names(wflw_fit$fit$fit$fit$data)[1], "date")
testthat::expect_true(is.null(wflw_fit$fit$fit$fit$extras$xreg_recipe))
# $preproc
mld <- wflw_fit %>% workflows::extract_mold()
testthat::expect_equal(names(mld$outcomes), "value")
# arima_reg: Arima (workflow), Test Predictions
full_data <- bind_rows(training(splits), testing(splits))
# Structure
testthat::expect_identical(nrow(full_data), nrow(predictions_tbl))
testthat::expect_identical(full_data$date, predictions_tbl$.index)
# Out-of-Sample Accuracy Tests
predictions_tbl <- predictions_tbl %>% filter(.key == "prediction")
resid <- testing(splits)$value - predictions_tbl$.value
# - Max Error less than 1500
testthat::expect_lte(max(abs(resid)), 1500)
# - MAE less than 700
testthat::expect_lte(mean(abs(resid)), 700)
})
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