# VAST univariate model with seasonal effects
# modified from https://github.com/James-Thorson-NOAA/VAST/wiki/Index-standardization
# install.packages('TMB', type = 'source')
# remotes::install_github("james-thorson/VAST")
library(dplyr)
library(tidyr)
library(ggplot2)
library(VAST)
# library(furrr)
#
# ## For some reason I need to make sure Rtools has path properly set, else TMB won't compile
Sys.setenv(PATH = paste("C:/Rtools/bin", Sys.getenv("PATH"), sep=";"))
Sys.setenv(BINPREF = "C:/Rtools/mingw_$(WIN)/bin/")
# Load Data -----
data("ecomon_epu")
# # # Number of stations per year
# total_stations <- ecomon_epu %>%
# group_by(year) %>%
# summarize(total = n_distinct(id))
#
# season_list <- c("winter", "spring", "summer", "fall")
# #
# # ## Proportion of stations with positive tows per year. Cutoff used to "keep"
# spps <- ecomon_epu %>%
# mutate(present = ifelse(abundance > 0,
# 1, 0)) %>%
# filter(year >= 1994,
# spp != "euph1") %>%
# left_join(total_stations) %>%
# group_by(year, season, spp) %>%
# summarize(positive_stations = sum(present, na.rm = TRUE)/total,
# keep = ifelse(positive_stations > .10,
# 1, 0)) %>%
# distinct()
# #
# # ## List of spp where the total number of years by season is greater than 5
# # ## and each spp group has more than cutoff of positive tows
# spp_list <- spps %>%
# filter(season %in% season_list) %>%
# group_by(spp, season) %>%
# summarize(count = sum(keep)) %>%
# filter(all(count > 5)) %>%
# select(spp) %>%
# distinct() %>%
# pull(spp)
spp_list <- c("calfin", "chaeto", "cham", "clauso", "ctyp",
"euph", "gas", "hyper", "larvaceans",
"mlucens", "oithspp", "para", "pseudo", "tlong")
## Seasonal model -----
working_dir <- here::here("analysis/vast_seasonal_EOF3/")
if(!dir.exists(working_dir)) {
dir.create(working_dir, recursive = TRUE)
}
#
# ## Attempt to create a log file
# my_log <- file(sprintf("%s/%s_log-%s.txt", working_dir, sp, n_x)) # File name of output log
#
# sink(my_log, append = TRUE, type = "output") # Writing console output to log file
# on.exit(sink(file = NULL), add = TRUE, after = TRUE)
#
# sink(my_log, append = TRUE, type = "message")
# on.exit(sink(file = NULL), add = TRUE, after = TRUE)
#
zoop_dat <- ecomon_epu %>%
dplyr::filter(spp %in% spp_list,
EPU %in% c("GB", "GOM", "MAB"),
as.numeric(year) >= 1994) %>%
dplyr::mutate(areaswept_km2 = 1) %>%
group_by(year, season) %>%
# slice_sample(prop = .5) %>%
# droplevels() %>%
data.frame()
# ggplot(zoop_dat, aes(x = lon, y = lat)) +
# geom_point(data = zoop_dat %>% filter(abundance == 0), color = "black", fill = "black", shape = 21) +
# geom_point(data = zoop_dat %>% filter(abundance > 0), aes(color = season, size = abundance), alpha = 0.5) +
# facet_wrap(~year) +
# # labs(title = i) +
# NULL
# Load data and quick exploration of structure
# Set of years and seasons. The DFO spring survey usually occurs before the NOAA NEFSC spring survey, so ordering accordingly.
year_set = sort(unique(zoop_dat[,'year']))
season_set = c("winter", "spring", "summer", "fall")
# Create a grid with all unique combinations of seasons and years and then combine these into one "year_season" variable
yearseason_grid = expand.grid("season" = season_set, "year" = year_set)
yearseason_levels = apply(yearseason_grid[,2:1], MARGIN = 1, FUN = paste, collapse = "_")
yearseason_labels = round(yearseason_grid[,'year'] + (as.numeric(factor(yearseason_grid[,'season'], levels = season_set))-1)/length(season_set), digits=1)
# Similar process, but for the observations
yearseason_i = apply(zoop_dat[,c("year","season")], MARGIN = 1, FUN = paste, collapse = "_")
yearseason_i = factor(yearseason_i, levels = yearseason_levels)
# Add the year_season factor column to our sampling_data data set
zoop_dat$year_season = yearseason_i
zoop_dat$season = factor(zoop_dat$season, levels = season_set)
# Some last processing steps
zoop_dat = zoop_dat[, c("year", "season", "year_season", "lat", "lon", "areaswept_km2", "abundance")]
# Make dummy observation for each season-year combination
dummy_data = data.frame(
year = yearseason_grid[,'year'],
season = yearseason_grid[,'season'],
year_season = yearseason_levels,
lat = mean(zoop_dat[,'lat']),
lon = mean(zoop_dat[,'lon']),
areaswept_km2 = mean(zoop_dat[,'areaswept_km2']),
abundance = 0,
dummy = TRUE)
# Combine with sampling data
full_data = rbind(cbind(zoop_dat, dummy = FALSE), dummy_data)
# Create sample data
samp_dat = data.frame(
"year_season" = as.numeric(full_data$year_season)-1,
"Lat" = full_data$lat,
"Lon" = full_data$lon,
"abundance" = full_data$abundance,
"areaswept_km2" = full_data$areaswept_km2,
"Dummy" = full_data$dummy )
# Covariate data. Note here, case sensitive!
cov_dat = data.frame(
"Year" = as.numeric(full_data$year_season)-1,
"Year_Cov" = factor(full_data$year, levels = year_set),
"Season" = full_data$season,
"Lat" = full_data$lat,
"Lon" = full_data$lon)
# Inspect
# table("year_season"=cov_dat$Year, "Actual_year"=cov_dat$Year_Cov)
# table("year_season"=cov_dat$Year, "Actual_season"=cov_dat$Season)
#####
## Model settings
#####
## Random Fields -----
## Control the random fields part of the model.
## Omega = X is the number of random spatial fields to apply
## and Epsilon = X is the number of random spatio-temporal
## fields to apply. Omega1 is for the probability of
## occurrence, and Omega2 is for the density given occurrence,
## similarly for Epsilon.
## 0 = off
## "AR1" = AR1 process
## >1 = number of elements in a factor-analysis covariance
## "IID" = random effect following an IID distribution
FieldConfig <- c("Omega1" = "IID", "Epsilon1" = "IID", "Omega2" = "IID", "Epsilon2" = "IID")
## Autoregressive structure -----
## Control autoregressive structure for parameters over time
## Changing the settings here creates different
## autoregressive models for the intercept (Beta) and
## spatio-temporal process (Epsilon).
## 0 = each year is a fixed effect
## 1 = random effect
## 2 = random walk
## 3 = fixed effect that is constant over time
## 4 = AR1 process
RhoConfig <- c("Beta1" = c(0, 1, 2, 3, 4)[1],
"Beta2" = c(0, 1, 2, 3, 4)[1],
"Epsilon1" = c(0, 1, 2, 3, 4)[1],
"Epsilon2" = c(0, 1, 2, 3, 4)[1])
## Correlated overdispersion -----
## Control correlated overdispersion among categories
## for each level of v_i, where eta1 is for encounter
## probability, and eta2 is for positive catch rates
# eta1 = vessel effects on prey encounter rate
# eta2 = vessel effects on prey weight
## 0 = off,
## "AR1" = AR1 process,
## >0 = number of elements in a factor-analysis covariance
OverdispersionConfig <- c("eta1" = 0,
"eta2" = 0)
## Observation model -----
# Control observation model structure. The first
# component sets the distribution of the positive
# distribution component. ?VAST::make_data()
ObsModel <- c("PosDist" = 1, # Delta-Gamma; Alternative "Poisson-link delta-model" using log-link for numbers-density and log-link for biomass per number
"Link" = 1)
# Make settings
settings = make_settings(n_x = n_x,
Region = "northwest_atlantic",
strata.limits = "EPU",
purpose = "index2",
FieldConfig = FieldConfig,
RhoConfig = RhoConfig,
ObsModel = ObsModel,
bias.correct = FALSE,
Options = c('treat_nonencounter_as_zero' = TRUE) )
settings$epu_to_use <- c("Georges_Bank", "Gulf_of_Maine", "Mid_Atlantic_Bight")
# Creating model formula
# X1_formula = ~ Season + Year_Cov
# X2_formula = ~ Season + Year_Cov
X1_formula = ~ Season #+ Year_Cov
X2_formula = ~ Season #+ Year_Cov
# Implement corner constraint for linear effect but not spatially varying effect:
# * one level for each term is 2 (just spatially varying) spatially varying, zero-centered linear effect on 1st linear predictor for category c
# * all other levels for each term is 3 (spatially varying plus linear effect), spatially varying linear effect on 1st linear predictor for category c
# X1config_cp_use = matrix( c(2, rep(3,nlevels(cov_dat$Season)-1), 2, rep(3,nlevels(cov_dat$Year_Cov)-1) ), nrow=1 )
# X2config_cp_use = matrix( c(2, rep(3,nlevels(cov_dat$Season)-1), 2, rep(3,nlevels(cov_dat$Year_Cov)-1) ), nrow=1 )
X1config_cp_use = matrix( c(2, rep(3,nlevels(cov_dat$Season)-1)), nrow=1 )
X2config_cp_use = matrix( c(2, rep(3,nlevels(cov_dat$Season)-1)), nrow=1 )
#####
## Model fit -- make sure to use new functions
#####
fit_orig = fit_model(settings = settings,
Lat_i = samp_dat$Lat,
Lon_i = samp_dat$Lon,
t_i = samp_dat$year_season,
b_i = as_units(samp_dat$abundance, "count"),
a_i = as_units(samp_dat$areaswept_km2, "km^2"),
epu_to_use = settings$epu_to_use,
working_dir = working_dir,
X1config_cp = X1config_cp_use,
X2config_cp = X2config_cp_use,
covariate_data = cov_dat,
X1_formula = X1_formula,
X2_formula = X2_formula,
X_contrasts = list(Season = contrasts(cov_dat$Season, contrasts = FALSE)#,
# Year_Cov = contrasts(cov_dat$Year_Cov, contrasts = FALSE)
),
run_model = FALSE,
PredTF_i = samp_dat$Dummy,
# Use_REML = FALSE,
# getsd = TRUE,
# test_fit = FALSE,
Options = c('treat_nonencounter_as_zero' = TRUE),
# Method = Method,
optimize_args = list("lower" = -Inf,
"upper" = Inf))
# Adjust mapping for log_sigmaXi and fitting final model -- pool variance for all seasons and then set year's to NA
Map_adjust = fit_orig$tmb_list$Map
# Pool variances for each term to a single value
# Map_adjust$log_sigmaXi1_cp = factor(c(rep(as.numeric(Map_adjust$log_sigmaXi1_cp[1]), nlevels(cov_dat$Season)),
# rep(as.numeric(Map_adjust$log_sigmaXi1_cp[nlevels(cov_dat$Season)+1]), nlevels(cov_dat$Year_Cov))))
# Map_adjust$log_sigmaXi2_cp = factor(c(rep(as.numeric(Map_adjust$log_sigmaXi2_cp[1]), nlevels(cov_dat$Season)),
# rep(as.numeric(Map_adjust$log_sigmaXi2_cp[nlevels(cov_dat$Season)+1]), nlevels(cov_dat$Year_Cov))))
#
#
Map_adjust$log_sigmaXi1_cp = factor(c(rep(as.numeric(Map_adjust$log_sigmaXi1_cp[1]), nlevels(cov_dat$Season))))#,
# rep(as.numeric(Map_adjust$log_sigmaXi1_cp[nlevels(cov_dat$Season)+1])#,
# nlevels(cov_dat$Year_Cov)
# )))
Map_adjust$log_sigmaXi2_cp = factor(c(rep(as.numeric(Map_adjust$log_sigmaXi2_cp[1]), nlevels(cov_dat$Season))))#,
# rep(as.numeric(Map_adjust$log_sigmaXi2_cp[nlevels(cov_dat$Season)+1])#,
# nlevels(cov_dat$Year_Cov)
# )))
# Fit final model with new mapping
fit = fit_model(settings = settings,
Lat_i = samp_dat$Lat,
Lon_i = samp_dat$Lon,
t_i = samp_dat$year_season,
b_i = as_units(samp_dat$abundance, "count"),
a_i = as_units(samp_dat$areaswept_km2, "km^2"),
epu_to_use = settings$epu_to_use,
working_dir = working_dir,
X1config_cp = X1config_cp_use,
X2config_cp = X2config_cp_use,
covariate_data = cov_dat,
X1_formula = X1_formula,
X2_formula = X2_formula,
X_contrasts = list(Season = contrasts(cov_dat$Season, contrasts = FALSE)#,
# Year_Cov = contrasts(cov_dat$Year_Cov, contrasts = FALSE)
),
newtonsteps = 1,
PredTF_i = samp_dat$Dummy,
Map = Map_adjust,
# Use_REML = FALSE,
# getsd = TRUE,
# Options = c('treat_nonencounter_as_zero' = TRUE),
# Method = Method,
optimize_args = list("lower" = -Inf,
"upper" = Inf))
# Calculate predictive distribution for a Index_ctl
index_ctl_sd_array <- sample_variable(Sdreport = fit$par$SD,
Obj = fit$tmb_list$Obj,
variable_name = "Index_ctl",
n_samples = 100,
sample_fixed = FALSE) ## Only sample random effects
saveRDS(fit, file = paste0(working_dir, "/fit.rds"))
saveRDS(index_ctl_sd_array, file = paste0(working_dir, "/index_ctl_sd_array.rds"))
possibly_vast_wrapper <- purrr::quietly(vast_wrapper)
# plan(multisession, workers = 4)
vast_runs <- purrr::map(.x = spp_list, .f = possibly_vast_wrapper)
# plan(sequential)
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