# pmatrix.piecewise.msm: Transition probability matrix for processes with... In msm: Multi-State Markov and Hidden Markov Models in Continuous Time

## Description

Extract the estimated transition probability matrix from a fitted non-time-homogeneous multi-state model for a given time interval. This is a generalisation of `pmatrix.msm` to models with time-dependent covariates. Note that `pmatrix.msm` is sufficient to calculate transition probabilities for time-inhomogeneous models fitted using the `pci` argument to `msm`.

## Usage

 ```1 2 3``` ```pmatrix.piecewise.msm(x=NULL, t1, t2, times, covariates, ci=c("none","normal","bootstrap"), cl=0.95, B=1000, cores=NULL, qlist=NULL,...) ```

## Arguments

 `x` A fitted multi-state model, as returned by `msm`. This should be a non-homogeneous model, whose transition intensity matrix depends on a time-dependent covariate. `t1` The start of the time interval to estimate the transition probabilities for. `t2` The end of the time interval to estimate the transition probabilities for. `times` Cut points at which the transition intensity matrix changes. `covariates` A list with number of components one greater than the length of `times`. Each component of the list is specified in the same way as the `covariates` argument to `pmatrix.msm`. The components correspond to the covariate values in the intervals ```(t1, times[1]], (times[1], times[2]], ..., (times[length(times)], t2]``` (assuming that all elements of `times` are in the interval `(t1, t2)`). `ci` If `"normal"`, then calculate a confidence interval for the transition probabilities by simulating `B` random vectors from the asymptotic multivariate normal distribution implied by the maximum likelihood estimates (and covariance matrix) of the log transition intensities and covariate effects, then calculating the resulting transition probability matrix for each replicate. If `"bootstrap"` then calculate a confidence interval by non-parametric bootstrap refitting. This is 1-2 orders of magnitude slower than the `"normal"` method, but is expected to be more accurate. See `boot.msm` for more details of bootstrapping in msm. If `"none"` (the default) then no confidence interval is calculated. `cl` Width of the symmetric confidence interval, relative to 1. `B` Number of bootstrap replicates, or number of normal simulations from the distribution of the MLEs `cores` Number of cores to use for bootstrapping using parallel processing. See `boot.msm` for more details. `qlist` A list of transition intensity matrices, of length one greater than the length of `times`. Either this or a fitted model `x` must be supplied. No confidence intervals are available if (just) `qlist` is supplied. `...` Optional arguments to be passed to `MatrixExp` to control the method of computing the matrix exponential.

## Details

Suppose a multi-state model has been fitted, in which the transition intensity matrix Q(x(t)) is modelled in terms of time-dependent covariates x(t). The transition probability matrix P(t1, tn) for the time interval (t1, tn) cannot be calculated from the estimated intensity matrix as exp((tn - t1) Q), because Q varies within the interval t1, tn. However, if the covariates are piecewise-constant, or can be approximated as piecewise-constant, then we can calculate P(t1, tn) by multiplying together individual matrices P(t_i, t_{i+1}) = exp((t_{i+1} - t_i) Q), calculated over intervals where Q is constant:

P(t1, tn) = P(t1, t2) P(t2, t3)…P(tn-1, tn)

## Value

The matrix of estimated transition probabilities P(t) for the time interval `[t1, tn]`. That is, the probabilities of occupying state s at time tn conditionally on occupying state r at time t1. Rows correspond to "from-state" and columns to "to-state".

## Author(s)

C. H. Jackson [email protected]

`pmatrix.msm`
 ``` 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19``` ```## Not run: ## In a clinical study, suppose patients are given a placebo in the ## first 5 weeks, then they begin treatment 1 at 5 weeks, and ## a combination of treatments 1 and 2 from 10 weeks. ## Suppose a multi-state model x has been fitted for the patients' ## progress, with treat1 and treat2 as time dependent covariates. ## Cut points for when treatment covariate changes times <- c(0, 5, 10) ## Indicators for which treatments are active in the four intervals ## defined by the three cut points covariates <- list( list (treat1=0, treat2=0), list (treat1=0, treat2=0), list(treat1=1, treat2=0), list(treat1=1, treat2=1) ) ## Calculate transition probabilities from the start of the study to 15 weeks pmatrix.piecewise.msm(x, 0, 15, times, covariates) ## End(Not run) ```