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#' Indicator function
#'
#' This function creates 0-1 indicators for a given threshold y0 and vector y
#'
#' @param y vector y
#' @param y0 threshold value y0
#' @return val
#'
#' @export
indicat<- function(y,y0){
if(y<=y0){
val<- 1
}else{
val=0
}
return(val)
}
indicat<- base::Vectorize(indicat) #make the function usable with a vector y
#===============================================================================
#' Logit function
#'
#' This is the link function for logit regression
#'
#' @param x Random variable
#' @return val Probability value from the logistic function
#'
#' @export
LogitLink = function(x) {
val=(1/(1+exp(-x)))
return(val)
}
LogitLink=base::Vectorize(LogitLink) # ensure usability with entire vectors
#================================================================================================#
#' Logit likelihood function
#'
#' \code{logit} is the logistic likelihood function given data.
#'
#' @param start vector of starting values
#' @param data dataframe. The first column should be the dependent variable.
#' @param Log a logical input (defaults to \code{True}) to take the log of the likelihood.
#' @return like returns the likelihood function value.
#'
#' @examples
#' y = indicat(faithful$waiting,mean(faithful$waiting))
#' x = scale(cbind(faithful$eruptions,faithful$eruptions^2))
#' data = data.frame(y,x)
#' logit(rep(0,3),data)
#' @export
logit = function(start,data,Log=TRUE){
y=data[,1]; x=data[,-1]; # apportion response and explanatory variables
penalty <- -10^12
like <- penalty
N <- length(y);
npar <- length(start)
f <- matrix(0,N,1)
x = as.matrix(data.frame(rep(1,N),x)) # add ones for intercept term
m = c(0);
for (i in 1:nrow(data)) {
m[i] = x[i,]%*%start
}
g = LogitLink(m) # take logit transform of linear prediction vector
for (i in 1:nrow(data)) {
if(y[i]==1){p=g[i]}
if(y[i]==0){p=(1-g[i])}
f[i] = ifelse(Log, log(p), p) # compute log of likelihood
}
like = ifelse(Log, sum(f),prod(f))
if (is.na(like) | is.infinite(like)) {
like <- penalty
}
return(like)
}
#================================================================================================#
#' Normal Prior distribution
#'
#' This normal prior distribution is a product of univariate N(mu,sig)
#'
#' @param pars parameter values
#' @param mu mean value of each parameter value
#' @param sig standard deviation of each parameter value
#' @param Log logical to take the log of prior or not (defaults to FALSE)
#' @return val Product of probability values for each parameter
#'
#' @examples
#' prior_n(rep(0,6),0,10,Log = TRUE) #log of prior
#' prior_n(rep(0,6),0,10,Log = FALSE) #no log
#'
#' @export
prior_n<- function(pars,mu,sig,Log=FALSE){
val<- ifelse(!Log, prod(stats::dnorm(pars,mu,sig)),sum(stats::dnorm(pars,mu,sig,log= T)))
#if log FALSE
return(val)
}
#================================================================================================#
#' Uniform Prior distribution
#'
#' This uniform prior distribution proportional to 1
#'
#' @param pars parameter values
#' @return val value of joint prior =1 for the uniform prior
#'
#' @export
prior_u<- function(pars){
val<- 1
return(val)
}
#================================================================================================#
#' Posterior distribution
#'
#' \code{posterior} computes the value of the posterior at parameter values \code{pars}
#'
#' @param pars parameter values
#' @param data dataframe. The first column must be the binary dependent variable
#' @param Log logical to take the log of the posterior.(defaults to TRUE)
#' @param mu mean of prior of each parameter value in case the prior is Normal (default: 0)
#' @param sig standard deviation of prior of each parameter in case the prior is Normal
#' (default: 25)
#' @param prior string input of "Normal" or "Uniform" prior distribution to use
#' @return val value function of the posterior
#'
#' @examples
#' y = indicat(faithful$waiting,mean(faithful$waiting))
#' x = scale(cbind(faithful$eruptions,faithful$eruptions^2))
#' data = data.frame(y,x)
#' posterior(rep(0,3),data,Log = FALSE,mu=0,sig = 10,prior = "Normal") # no log
#' posterior(rep(0,3),data,Log = TRUE,mu=0,sig = 10,prior = "Normal") # log
#' posterior(rep(0,3),data,Log = TRUE) # use default values
#'
#' @export
posterior<- function(pars,data,Log=TRUE,mu=0,sig=25,prior="Normal"){
if(Log){
val = logit(pars,data,Log=TRUE) +
ifelse(identical("Normal",prior),prior_n(pars,mu,sig,Log=T),0)
}else{
val = logit(pars,data,Log=FALSE) *
ifelse(identical("Normal",prior),prior_n(pars,mu,sig,Log=F),1)
}
return(val)
}
#================================================================================================#
#' Laplace approximation of posterior to normal
#'
#' This function generates mode and variance-covariance for a normal proposal
#' distribution for the bayesian logit.
#'
#' @param y the binary dependent variable y
#' @param x the matrix of independent variables.
#' @param glmobj logical for returning the logit glm object
#' @return val A list of mode variance-covariance matrix, and scale factor for
#' proposal draws from the multivariate normal distribution.
#'
#' @examples
#' y = indicat(faithful$waiting,mean(faithful$waiting))
#' x = scale(cbind(faithful$eruptions,faithful$eruptions^2))
#' gg<- lapl_aprx(y,x)
#'
#' @export
lapl_aprx<- function(y,x,glmobj=FALSE){ #laplace approximation
dat = data.frame(y,x)
lgitob<-stats::glm(dat$y~.,data=dat,family = "binomial")
if(!glmobj){
val<- list(mode= lgitob$coefficients,var = stats::vcov(lgitob))
}else{
val<- list(mode= lgitob$coefficients,var = stats::vcov(lgitob)
,glmobj=lgitob)
}
return(val)
}
#================================================================================================#
#' Laplace approximation of posterior to normal
#'
#' \code{lapl_aprx2} is a more flexible alternative to \code{lapl_aprx}. This creates
#' \code{glm} objects from which joint asymptotic distributions can be computed.
#'
#' @param y the binary dependent variable y
#' @param x the matrix of independent variables.
#' @param family a parameter to be passed \code{glm()}, defaults to the logit model
#' @param ... additional parameters to be passed to \code{glm()}
#' @return val A list of mode variance-covariance matrix, and scale factor for
#' proposal draws from the multivariate normal distribution.
#'
#' @examples
#' y = indicat(faithful$waiting,mean(faithful$waiting))
#' x = scale(cbind(faithful$eruptions,faithful$eruptions^2))
#' (gg<- lapl_aprx2(y,x)); coef(gg); vcov(gg)
#'
#' @export
lapl_aprx2<- function(y,x,family = "binomial",...){ #laplace approximation
dat = data.frame(y,x)
lgitob<-stats::glm(dat$y~.,data=dat,family = family,...)
lgitob
}
#================================================================================================#
#' Fitted logit probabilities
#'
#' \code{fitlogit} obtains a vector of fitted logit probabilities given parameters (pars)
#' and data
#'
#' @param pars vector of parameters
#' @param data data frame. The first column of the data frame ought to be the binary dependent
#' variable
#' @return vec vector of fitted logit probabilities
#'
#' @export
fitlogit<- function(pars,data){
y=data[,1]; x=data[,-1];
penalty <- -10^12
like <- penalty
N <- length(y);
npar <- length(pars)
f <- matrix(0,N,1)
x = as.matrix(data.frame(rep(1,N),x)) # add ones for intercept term
m = c(0);
for (i in 1:nrow(data)) {
m[i] = x[i,]%*%pars
}
vec = LogitLink(m) # take logit transform of all values
return(vec)
}
#================================================================================================#
#' The distribution of mean fitted logit probabilities
#'
#' \code{fitdist} function generates a vector of mean fitted probabilities that constitute the
#' distribution. This involves marginalising out covariates.
#'
#' @param Matparam an M x k matrix of parameter draws, each being a 1 x k vector
#' @param data dataframe used to obtain Matparam
#' @return dist fitted (marginalised) distribution
#'
#' @export
fitdist<- function(Matparam,data){
fm = function(i) mean(fitlogit(Matparam[i,],data))
dist<-sapply(1:nrow(Matparam),fm)
return(dist)
}
#================================================================================================#
#' Parallel compute
#'
#' \code{parLply} uses \code{parlapply} from the \code{parallel} package with
#' a function as input
#'
#' @param vec vector of inputs over which to parallel compute
#' @param fn the function
#' @param type this option is set to "FORK", use "PSOCK" on windows
#' @param no_cores the number of cores to use. Defaults at 1
#' @param ... extra inputs to \code{fn()}
#' @return out parallel computed output
#'
#' @export
parLply<- function(vec,fn,type="FORK",no_cores=1,...){
c1<-parallel::makeCluster(no_cores, type = type)
out<- parallel::parLapply(c1,vec,fn,...)
parallel::stopCluster(c1)
out
}
#================================================================================================#
#' Quantile conversion of a bayesian distribution matrix
#'
#' \code{quant_bdr} converts a bayesian distribution regression matrix from \code{par_distreg()}
#' output to a matrix of quantile distribution.
#'
#' @param taus a vector of quantile indices
#' @param thresh a vector of threshold values used in a \code{par_distreg()} type function
#' @param mat bayesian distribution regression output matrix
#' @return qmat matrix of quantile distribution
#'
#' @export
quant_bdr<- function(taus,thresh,mat){
mat=t(apply(mat,1,sort));
q.inv<-function(j){
zg=stats::spline(x=sort(mat[,j]),y=thresh,xout = taus)
sort(zg$y)
} ; q.inv=Vectorize(q.inv)
qmat<-sapply(1:ncol(mat),q.inv)
qmat
}
#=====================================================================================================#
#' Symmetric simultaneous bayesian confidence bands
#'
#' \code{simcnfB} obtains symmetric bayesian distribution confidence bands
#'
#' @param DF the target distribution/quantile function as a vector
#' @param DFmat the matrix of draws of the distribution, rows correspond to
#' elements in \code{DF}
#' @param alpha level such that \code{1-alpha} is the desired probability of coverage
#' @param scale logical for scaling using the inter-quartile range
#' @return cstar - a constant to add and subtract from DF to create
#' confidence bands if no scaling=FALSE else a vector of length DF.
#'
#' @examples
#' set.seed(14); m=matrix(rbeta(500,1,4),nrow = 5) + 1:5
#' DF = apply(m,1,mean); plot(1:5,DF,type="l",ylim = c(0,max(m)), xlab = "Index")
#' symCB<- simcnfB(DF,DFmat = m)
#' lines(1:5,DF-symCB,lty=2); lines(1:5,DF+symCB,lty=2)
#'
#' @export
#'
simcnfB<- function(DF,DFmat,alpha=0.05,scale=FALSE){
Ms = abs(DFmat-DF)
if(!scale){
dj<- apply(Ms,2,max,na.rm=TRUE)
cstar<- stats::quantile(dj[!is.infinite(dj)],probs = (1-alpha),na.rm = TRUE)
ans = cstar
}else{
scv = apply(Ms,1,stats::IQR,na.rm=TRUE)
Msc = Ms/scv
dj<- apply(Msc,2,max,na.rm=TRUE)
cstar<- stats::quantile(dj[!is.infinite(dj)],probs = (1-alpha),na.rm = TRUE)
ans = cstar*scv
}
return(ans)
}
#=====================================================================================================#
#' Asymmetric simultaneous bayesian confidence bands
#'
#' \code{asymcnfB} obtains asymmetric bayesian distribution confidence bands
#'
#' @param DF the target distribution/quantile function as a vector
#' @param DFmat the matrix of draws of the distribution, rows correspond to
#' elements in \code{DF}
#' @param alpha level such that \code{1-alpha} is the desired probability of coverage
#' @param scale logical for scaling using the inter-quartile range
#' @return cstar - a constant to add and subtract from DF to create
#' confidence bands if no scaling=FALSE else a vector of length DF.
#'
#' @examples
#' set.seed(14); m=matrix(rbeta(500,1,4),nrow = 5) + 1:5
#' DF = apply(m,1,mean); plot(1:5,DF,type="l",ylim = c(min(m),max(m)), xlab = "Index")
#' asyCB<- asymcnfB(DF,DFmat = m)
#' lines(1:5,DF-asyCB$cmin,lty=2); lines(1:5,DF+asyCB$cmax,lty=2)
#'
#' @export
#'
asymcnfB<- function(DF,DFmat,alpha=0.05,scale=FALSE){
alf2 = alpha/2
Ms = DFmat-DF
if(!scale){
djmx<- apply(Ms,2,max,na.rm=TRUE)
djmn<- apply(Ms,2,min,na.rm=TRUE)
cmin = -stats::quantile(djmn,probs=alf2,na.rm = TRUE)
cmax = stats::quantile(djmx,probs=(1-alf2),na.rm = TRUE)
ans=list(cmin=cmin,cmax=cmax)
}else{
scv = apply(Ms,1,stats::IQR,na.rm=TRUE)
Msc = Ms/scv
djmx<- apply(Msc,2,max,na.rm=TRUE)
djmn<- apply(Msc,2,min,na.rm=TRUE)
cmin = -stats::quantile(djmn,probs=alf2,na.rm = TRUE)
cmax = stats::quantile(djmx,probs=(1-alf2),na.rm = TRUE)
ans=list(cmin=cmin*scv,cmax=cmax*scv)
}
return(ans)
}
#===================================================================================================
#' Montiel Olea and Plagborg-Moller (2018) confidence bands
#'
#' \code{jntCBOM} implements calibrated symmetric confidence bands (algorithm 2)
#' in Montiel Olea and Plagborg-Moller (2018).
#'
#' @param DF the target distribution/quantile function as a vector
#' @param DFmat the matrix of draws of the distribution, rows correspond to
#' indices elements in \code{DF}
#' @param alpha level such that \code{1-alpha} is the desired probability of coverage
#' @param eps steps by which the grid on 1-alpha:alpha/2 is searched.
#' @return CB - confidence band, zeta - the optimal level
#'
#' @examples
#' set.seed(14); m=matrix(rbeta(500,1,4),nrow = 5) + 1:5
#' DF = apply(m,1,mean); plot(1:5,DF,type="l",ylim = c(min(m),max(m)), xlab = "Index")
#' jOMCB<- jntCBOM(DF,DFmat = m)
#' lines(1:5,jOMCB$CB[,1],lty=2); lines(1:5,jOMCB$CB[,2],lty=2)
#'
#' @export
#'
jntCBOM<- function(DF,DFmat,alpha=0.05,eps=1e-3){
G = length(DF); DF = sort(DF)
zeta = (alpha/(2*G))
cp = 1;
while(cp>(1-alpha) & zeta <=(alpha/2)){
vm=apply(DFmat,1,stats::quantile,probs=c(zeta,(1-zeta)))
vm=apply(vm,1,sort)
zk = vm - DF
cp=length(which(zk[,1]<=0 & zk[,2]>=0))/G
zeta=zeta+eps
}
return(list(CB = vm,zeta=(zeta-eps)))
}
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