Description Usage Arguments Details Value References See Also Examples
Computes the Brier score for the probability of exceedance of precipitation threshold values for univariate ensemble forecasting models.
1  brierScore(fit, ensembleData, thresholds, dates=NULL, ...)

fit 
A model fit to ensemble forecasting data, obtained using

ensembleData 
An 
thresholds 
Threshold values for which the probability of exceedance is evaluated, set to 0 to evaluate probability of precipitation forecasts. 
dates 
The dates for which the CRPS will be computed.
These dates must be consistent with 
... 
Included for generic function compatibility. 
Note that the Brier scores are only available for EMOS models suitable for precipitation accumulation, i.e. the censored and shifted gamma, and the censored generalized extreme value distribution EMOS model.
BScores
is a vector giving the Brier scores for each instance in the
data.
T. Gneiting and A. E. Raftery, Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction and estimation, Journal of the American Statistical Association 102:359–378, 2007.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18  data("ensBMAtest", package = "ensembleBMA")
ensMemNames < c("gfs","cmcg","eta","gasp","jma","ngps","tcwb","ukmo")
obs < paste("PCP24","obs", sep = ".")
ens < paste("PCP24", ensMemNames, sep = ".")
prcpTestData < ensembleData(forecasts = ensBMAtest[,ens],
dates = ensBMAtest[,"vdate"],
observations = ensBMAtest[,obs],
station = ensBMAtest[,"station"],
forecastHour = 48,
initializationTime = "00")
prcpTestFitCSG0 < ensembleMOScsg0(prcpTestData, trainingDays = 25,
dates = "2008010100")
brierScore(prcpTestFitCSG0, ensembleData = prcpTestData,
thresholds = 0)

Loading required package: ensembleBMA
Loading required package: chron
Loading required package: evd
Attaching package: 'ensembleMOS'
The following objects are masked from 'package:ensembleBMA':
brierScore, cdf, crps, quantileForecast, trainingData
modeling for date 2008010100 ...
(Intercept) PCP24.gfs PCP24.cmcg PCP24.eta PCP24.gasp PCP24.jma
0.00 0.12 0.00 0.02 0.11 0.25
PCP24.ngps PCP24.tcwb PCP24.ukmo
0.14 0.00 0.01
0.15 0.01 0.01
Warning message:
In ensembleMOScsg0(prcpTestData, trainingDays = 25, dates = "2008010100") :
options for chosing optimization methods are unavailable. Constrained minimization 'LBFGSG' is applied
0
63 0.14560932
64 0.01751548
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