Description Usage Arguments Details Value References See Also Examples
Computes the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of an ensemble forecasting model at observation locations.
1 
fit 
A model fit to ensemble forecasting data, obtained using

ensembleData 
An 
values 
The vector of desired values at which the CDF of the ensemble forecasting model is to be evaluated. 
dates 
The dates for which the CDF will be computed.
These dates must be consistent with 
... 
Included for generic function compatibility. 
This method is generic, and can be applied to any ensemble forecasting
model obtained using fitMOS
or ensembleMOS
.
For the EMOS models that allow for point masses at 0, i.e. the censored and
shifted gamma, and the censored generalized extreme value distribution EMOS model,
the function contains an addition logical argument randomizeATzero
that specifies
whether the value of the CDF at zero should be chosen randomly from the interval between
0 and the value of the CDF at zero. The default choice if FALSE
, setting
randomizeATzero = TRUE
is practical for computing randomized PIT values.
A matrix of probabilities corresponding to the CDF at the desired values. Useful for determining propability of freezing, precipitation, etc.
T. Gneiting, A. E. Raftery, A. H. Westveld and T. Goldman, Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation. Monthly Weather Review 133:1098–1118, 2005.
ensembleMOS
,
fitMOS
,
quantileForecast
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21  data("ensBMAtest", package = "ensembleBMA")
ensMemNames < c("gfs","cmcg","eta","gasp","jma","ngps","tcwb","ukmo")
obs < paste("T2", "obs", sep = ".")
ens < paste("T2", ensMemNames, sep = ".")
tempTestData < ensembleData(forecasts = ensBMAtest[,ens],
dates = ensBMAtest[,"vdate"],
observations = ensBMAtest[,obs],
station = ensBMAtest[,"station"],
forecastHour = 48,
initializationTime = "00")
tempTestFit < ensembleMOS(tempTestData, trainingDays = 25,
model = "normal",
dates = "2008010100")
tempTestCDF < cdf(tempTestFit, tempTestData,
values = seq(from=277, to=282, by = 1))
tempTestCDF

Loading required package: ensembleBMA
Loading required package: chron
Loading required package: evd
Attaching package: 'ensembleMOS'
The following objects are masked from 'package:ensembleBMA':
brierScore, cdf, crps, quantileForecast, trainingData
modeling for date 2008010100 ...
(Intercept) T2.gfs T2.cmcg T2.eta T2.gasp T2.jma
17.42 0.26 0.19 0.22 0.00 0.24
T2.ngps T2.tcwb T2.ukmo
0.15 0.00 0.00
1.14 0.00
277 278 279 280 281 282
63 0.01308391 0.09935622 0.3643914 0.7229871 0.9370191 0.9932199
64 0.49575790 0.82325730 0.9690026 0.9974827 0.9999092 0.9999986
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